Saturday, May 28, 2022

Weekly Indicators for May 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Few changes to the headlines, but lots of churning underneath. P...
Friday, May 27, 2022

Real income and - especially - spending increase in April, but households are getting much more overextended

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   - by New Deal democrat In April nominal personal income rose 0.4%, and spending rose 0.9%. March’s spending was revised up from 1.1% to 1...
Thursday, May 26, 2022

Initial and continuing jobless claims continue moderating trend

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 8,000 to 210,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 s...
Wednesday, May 25, 2022

Real money supply declines sharply; another leading indicator for recession next year

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    - by New Deal democrat Real M1 declined -0.8% in April, and real M2 declined by -0.7%, following March declines of -1.0% for each: These...
Tuesday, May 24, 2022

New home sales get walloped

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   - by New Deal democrat New single family home sales got walloped in April, declining -16.6% for the month compared with March, and down ...
Monday, May 23, 2022

Inflation reversals as unique markers of Boom and Bust cycles vs. Fed interventions

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   - by New Deal democrat As I’ve already mentioned a couple of times, I am seeing posts from the usual DOOOMERS warning that a recession is...
Saturday, May 21, 2022

Weekly Indicators for May 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The yield curve tightened some more this week (but did not inv...
Friday, May 20, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for May 20: signs of a peak in BA.2.12.1 in bellwether jurisdictions; is BA.4/BA.5 next?

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   - by New Deal democrat With no significant economic data today, let’s take a look at where the BA.2.12.1 COVID wave is. Nationwide cases ...
Thursday, May 19, 2022

Initial claims: a little cooling in the white hot employment market

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    - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 21,000 to 218,000, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. ...
Wednesday, May 18, 2022

Housing permits and starts decline slightly, but housing still an economic positive over the next 12 months

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   - by New Deal democrat Housing permits and starts declined, but not by much, in April. Importantly, while typically permits, especially ...
Tuesday, May 17, 2022

Industrial production continues to show excellent growth

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    - by New Deal democrat I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators, because it speaks volumes about where the economy...

Real retail sales signal further expansion, but also continue to suggest slower payrolls growth ahead

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   - by New Deal democrat Nominal retail sales for the month of April were up 0.9%, and previous months were revised higher. That means that...
Monday, May 16, 2022

Will tomorrow’s real retail sales report forecast a recession, or just a continued slowdown?

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    - by New Deal democrat No economic data today of significance; but tomorrow one of my favorite economic indicators, retail sales, will b...
Saturday, May 14, 2022

Weekly Indicators for May 9 - 13 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . One measure of how the Russia-Ukraine war has been “normalized...
Friday, May 13, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for May 13: the virus will gradually become less lethal - because you can only die once

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    - by New Deal democrat COVID-19 is still a pandemic, and is gradually going to transition to endemic. A year ago I thought that between ...
Thursday, May 12, 2022

New jobless claims rise slightly, but continuing claims make another 50+ year low

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 1,000 to 203,000, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. Th...
Wednesday, May 11, 2022

With the Fed already having begun to “stomp on the brakes,” inflation is still running very hot

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   - by New Deal democrat As promised, here is my second post on the April CPI number. The YoY advance in consumer prices, +8.3%, is down f...