Saturday, April 16, 2022

Weekly Indicators for April 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . There was good news and bad news this week. The good news is th...
Friday, April 15, 2022

Real aggregate payrolls and sales

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 - by New Deal democrat There seems to be some pushback against the narrative that real wages have declined, based on compositional effects ...

The production side of the economy remained solid in March

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    - by New Deal democrat Industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, increased in March by 0.9%. February was also revised h...
Thursday, April 14, 2022

Real retail sales in March continue to show a weaker consumer sector, forecast weaker jobs reports and GDP

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 - by New Deal democrat For the past few months, I have suspected that a sharp deceleration beginning with the consumer sector of the econo...

Jobless claims: the employment sector of the economy continues to do just fine

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll comment on this morning’s retail sales report for March separately] Initial jobless claims rose 18,000...
Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for April 13: watching the BA.2 “bump”

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  - by New Deal democrat The BA.2 “bump” (h/t Dr. Eric Topol) is upon us (and hopefully a “bump” is all it is). Let’s take a look at where w...
Tuesday, April 12, 2022

March consumer inflation part 2: I told you so; the Fed *must* start paying attention to house price indexes

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 - by New Deal democrat This is the second part of my take on the March consumer inflation report. As you may have already read, total infla...

March consumer inflation part 1: real wages decline sharply

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 - by New Deal democrat The March consumer inflation report was particularly important, and particularly bad. So much so that I am going to...
Monday, April 11, 2022

Housing affordability update: prices vs. mortgage payments; and ramifications for the economy

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   - by New Deal democrat No  economic news today, and most States didn’t report new COVID cases over the weekend, so let’s take a look at s...
Saturday, April 9, 2022

Weekly Indicators for April 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . After several weeks of tightening and then inversion, the yiel...
Friday, April 8, 2022

In the Paul Krugman vs. Nate Silver cage match, I’m on Team Nate

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   - by New Deal democrat Prof.  Paul Krugman and Nate Silver got into a dust-up earlier this week about why so many voters seem to have so...
Thursday, April 7, 2022

Benchmark revisions, oh my! Four week average of jobless claims makes all-time 55 year series low

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   - by New Deal democrat The DoL made revisions to the last five years of jobless claims, in particular revising the seasonal adjustments, ...
Wednesday, April 6, 2022

Scenes from the March jobs report; and the Great Resignation as “Take This Job and Shove It!”

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   - by New Deal democrat It’s been a little while since I took a more in-depth look at the jobs market, so let’s take a look. As I wrote la...
Tuesday, April 5, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for April 5: BA.2 likely only causes a ripple; and on track for record low daily deaths

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    - by New Deal democrat This is a good time to look at the impact - or, better speaking, the lack thereof - of the BA.2 Omicron variant i...