Saturday, March 26, 2022

Weekly Indicators for March 21 - 25 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The walls closed in a little more on the long leading forecast t...
Friday, March 25, 2022

An update on the yield curve

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    - by New Deal democrat   This is an update on my yield curve post from earlier this week. As had happened in the previous few days, the ...
Thursday, March 24, 2022

Jobless claims: I feel like humming psychedelic tunes from the 1960s

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  - by New Deal democrat Initial claims (blue) declined 28,000 to 187,000, yet another new pandemic low (pending revisions!), and the lowes...
Wednesday, March 23, 2022

The housing market’s downward turn begins: new home sales in February, plus a comment about affordability

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  - by New Deal democrat As of this morning Mortgage News Daily shows the 30 year mortgage rate up to 4.72%, 1.9% higher than their lows 15 ...
Tuesday, March 22, 2022

The US Treasury yield curve is on the verge of inverting

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   - by New Deal democrat My graphing issue hasn’t resolved yet. Fortunately there is no big new economic news today, and there is something...
Monday, March 21, 2022

Coronavirus Dashboard for March 21: the likely course of BA.2 in the US

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: I am having a major issue with formatting photos today, which will be readily apparent. I will fix this as...
Saturday, March 19, 2022

Weekly Indicators for March 14 - 18 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The economic indicators are coming under pressure from both end...
Friday, March 18, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for March 18: the BA.2 variant behaves just like original Omicron

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   - by New Deal democrat In the last several days, the 7 day average of cases in the US has increased slightly from  30,700 to 32,700. The...
Thursday, March 17, 2022

Housing permits and starts: still an economic positive - for the moment

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   - by New Deal democrat As you know, I consider housing, and in particular single family housing permits, one of the very best long leadin...

Industrial production nowcasts that the economy continues to perform well

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   - by New Deal democrat Industrial production increased in February by 0.5%, its highest reading ever with the exception of two months in ...

Yet another new 50+ year low in continuing jobless claims

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   - by New Deal democrat After 3 days of a data desert, today there is a cornucopia of data: not just initial claims, but housing starts an...
Wednesday, March 16, 2022

Real retail sales for February: not recessionary, but not healthy either

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the February update for one of my favorite indicators, real retail sales.  For the past few m...