Saturday, February 26, 2022

Weekly Indicators for February 21 - 25 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has added some elevated risk...
Friday, February 25, 2022

Consumers still spend, but real income declines, leaving them increasingly vulnerable to price shocks

›
    - by New Deal democrat Nominal personal income was unchanged in January, while spending rose 2.1%. In real terms after inflation, person...
Thursday, February 24, 2022

New home sales increasing trend continues - for now; expect a major pullback in coming months

›
   - by New Deal democrat With mortgage rates having risen sharply (as of this morning Mortgage News Daily has the 30 year rate up to 4.19%,...

New 50+ year low in continuing jobless claims

›
   - by New Deal democrat [Programming note: I will post about new home sales later this morning.] Initial claims (blue) declined 17,000 to ...
Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for February 23: the Omicron wave has receded by almost 90%; what about deaths?

›
    - by New Deal democrat No economic data today, so let’s update the situation with COVID-19. My usual source of graphs, 91-Divoc, is down...
Tuesday, February 22, 2022

House price increases still strong, but clear deceleration from peak

›
   - by New Deal democrat The Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes were reporting this morning, covering the period through December. A...
Monday, February 21, 2022

You’re reading the right blog, Presidents‘ Day edition

›
   - by New Deal democrat No economic data today due to the Presidents’ Day holiday, so here is something else I ran across over the weekend...
Saturday, February 19, 2022

Weekly Indicators for February 14 - 18 at Seeking Alpha

›
    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. As the Omicron tsunami recedes, what is still present is high c...
Friday, February 18, 2022

A housing warning: affordability, at long last, is approaching its housing bubble nadir

›
   - by New Deal democrat If current price and mortgage trends hold, we are about 6 to 12 months away from matching the very worst housing a...
Thursday, February 17, 2022

Housing permits jump; the last hurrah before mortgage rates bite?

›
   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s report on January housing permits and starts highlighted the unique divergence between the two. As ...

Jobless claims essentially steady; we have probably seen the low for this expansion

›
   - by New Deal democrat [Programming note: I will post about housing permits and starts later this morning.] Since the crisis in jobless c...
Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Retail sales and industrial production both positive for January; but expect an employment slowdown in the coming months

›
    - by New Deal democrat Over the past few months, one of my repeated refrains has been that a sharp deceleration beginning with the consu...
Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for February 15: the most optimistic I have been in months

›
    - by New Deal democrat The current trend in both cases and deaths in the US has me the most hopeful I have been in over 6 months. Here’s...

A note on producer prices and (possibly) cooling inflation

›
   - by New Deal democrat [Programming note: I will hopefully have an updated Coronavirus dashboard up later today.] One point I make from t...
Monday, February 14, 2022

The return of the “Oil Choke Collar”!

›
 - by New Deal democrat For the first five years after the end of the Great Recession, one of the staples of my analysis was the concept of ...