Saturday, February 19, 2022

Weekly Indicators for February 14 - 18 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. As the Omicron tsunami recedes, what is still present is high c...
Friday, February 18, 2022

A housing warning: affordability, at long last, is approaching its housing bubble nadir

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   - by New Deal democrat If current price and mortgage trends hold, we are about 6 to 12 months away from matching the very worst housing a...
Thursday, February 17, 2022

Housing permits jump; the last hurrah before mortgage rates bite?

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s report on January housing permits and starts highlighted the unique divergence between the two. As ...

Jobless claims essentially steady; we have probably seen the low for this expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat [Programming note: I will post about housing permits and starts later this morning.] Since the crisis in jobless c...
Wednesday, February 16, 2022

Retail sales and industrial production both positive for January; but expect an employment slowdown in the coming months

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    - by New Deal democrat Over the past few months, one of my repeated refrains has been that a sharp deceleration beginning with the consu...
Tuesday, February 15, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for February 15: the most optimistic I have been in months

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    - by New Deal democrat The current trend in both cases and deaths in the US has me the most hopeful I have been in over 6 months. Here’s...

A note on producer prices and (possibly) cooling inflation

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   - by New Deal democrat [Programming note: I will hopefully have an updated Coronavirus dashboard up later today.] One point I make from t...
Monday, February 14, 2022

The return of the “Oil Choke Collar”!

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 - by New Deal democrat For the first five years after the end of the Great Recession, one of the staples of my analysis was the concept of ...
Saturday, February 12, 2022

Weekly Indicators for February 7 - 11 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.  Last year my task was easy, because the issue was whether to d...
Friday, February 11, 2022

Real wages continued to stall in January, portending a consumer slowdown, but don’t reverse

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me follow up on yesterday’s post about the January CPI by talking about “real” wages. Since both average real...
Thursday, February 10, 2022

Jump in January consumer prices seals the deal on Fed interest rate hikes

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   - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices increased 0.6% in January, the third time in four months that it has come in over 0.5%. Energy inc...

Jobless claims bounce along near their bottom

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   - by New Deal democrat New jobless claims declined 16,000 to 223,000 last week. This is still 35,000 higher than the low of 188,000 set o...
Wednesday, February 9, 2022

Gas prices sound a consumer warning

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    - by New Deal democrat I got a note yesterday from a fellow forecaster pointing out that crude oil prices have once again made new 7 yea...
Tuesday, February 8, 2022

Coronavirus Dashboard for February 8: Omicron declines sharply; did Delta provide protection against the worst outcomes?

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   - by New Deal democrat As I mentioned yesterday, I haven’t posted a Coronavirus dashboard in awhile, and with Omicron in rapid retreat, ...