Saturday, February 12, 2022

Weekly Indicators for February 7 - 11 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.  Last year my task was easy, because the issue was whether to d...
Friday, February 11, 2022

Real wages continued to stall in January, portending a consumer slowdown, but don’t reverse

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me follow up on yesterday’s post about the January CPI by talking about “real” wages. Since both average real...
Thursday, February 10, 2022

Jump in January consumer prices seals the deal on Fed interest rate hikes

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   - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices increased 0.6% in January, the third time in four months that it has come in over 0.5%. Energy inc...

Jobless claims bounce along near their bottom

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   - by New Deal democrat New jobless claims declined 16,000 to 223,000 last week. This is still 35,000 higher than the low of 188,000 set o...
Wednesday, February 9, 2022

Gas prices sound a consumer warning

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    - by New Deal democrat I got a note yesterday from a fellow forecaster pointing out that crude oil prices have once again made new 7 yea...
Tuesday, February 8, 2022

Coronavirus Dashboard for February 8: Omicron declines sharply; did Delta provide protection against the worst outcomes?

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   - by New Deal democrat As I mentioned yesterday, I haven’t posted a Coronavirus dashboard in awhile, and with Omicron in rapid retreat, ...
Monday, February 7, 2022

Programming note: not playing hooky!

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   - by New Deal democrat The economic calendar is *really* sparse this week: initial jobless claims and CPI on Thursday are the only releas...
Saturday, February 5, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 31 - February 4 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . There is an old market saying that “the cure for high prices i...
Friday, February 4, 2022

January jobs report: huge gain in wages, huge upward revisions to past few months, limited Omicron impact

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   - by New Deal democrat Here are the three issues I was looking to see addressed in this jobs report:  1. Would last month’s “poor” 199,00...
Thursday, February 3, 2022

Jobless claims: Omicron still rules the roost, but effects abating

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   - by New Deal democrat It is clear that Omicron has continued to result in increased layoffs, but the effect is probably abating. New cla...
Wednesday, February 2, 2022

December JOLTS report: with Omicron raging, the pool of potential employees refuses to fill, meaning more record wage gains

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   - by New Deal democrat The Census Bureau has started to release the JOLTS report earlier in the month. So we got December’s report yester...
Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Manufacturing continues strong in January; construction continued to sag in December

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the first data for last month starts out with the ISM manufacturing report.  This index, especially its ...
Monday, January 31, 2022

My long leading forecast through the end of 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat My long leading forecast that goes 12 months out is now up at Seeking Alpha . I am as nerdy as can be, and follow...
Sunday, January 30, 2022

On the retirement of Justice Breyer: is this any way to run a country?

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  - by New Deal democrat Long long ago I remember reading that Justices William Brennan and Thurgood Marshall, both about 70 years old at th...
Saturday, January 29, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . While most of the chatter this past week was about inflation an...
Friday, January 28, 2022

Real personal income and spending both decline in December; no imminent worry but evidence of softening

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   - by New Deal democrat Nominal personal income rose 0.3% in December, while spending declined -0.6%. In real terms after inflation, perso...
Thursday, January 27, 2022

Real Q4 GDP completes the Boom of 2021, while long leading components warn of weaker 2022 to come

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    - by New Deal democrat Nominal GDP increased 6.9% in the 4th Quarter of 2021. After taking into account inflation, it increased 1.7%: Th...

With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs

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    - by New Deal democrat With seasonality behind us, it is apparent that Omicron has resulted in increased layoffs. New claims declined 30...
Wednesday, January 26, 2022

New home sales surge, while house price measures decelerate; expect deceleration or even downturns in each

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   - by New Deal democrat Since I didn’t post yesterday, let me catch up today with a note on both new home sales and prices. New home sales...