Saturday, February 5, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 31 - February 4 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . There is an old market saying that “the cure for high prices i...
Friday, February 4, 2022

January jobs report: huge gain in wages, huge upward revisions to past few months, limited Omicron impact

›
   - by New Deal democrat Here are the three issues I was looking to see addressed in this jobs report:  1. Would last month’s “poor” 199,00...
Thursday, February 3, 2022

Jobless claims: Omicron still rules the roost, but effects abating

›
   - by New Deal democrat It is clear that Omicron has continued to result in increased layoffs, but the effect is probably abating. New cla...
Wednesday, February 2, 2022

December JOLTS report: with Omicron raging, the pool of potential employees refuses to fill, meaning more record wage gains

›
   - by New Deal democrat The Census Bureau has started to release the JOLTS report earlier in the month. So we got December’s report yester...
Tuesday, February 1, 2022

Manufacturing continues strong in January; construction continued to sag in December

›
   - by New Deal democrat As usual, the first data for last month starts out with the ISM manufacturing report.  This index, especially its ...
Monday, January 31, 2022

My long leading forecast through the end of 2022

›
   - by New Deal democrat My long leading forecast that goes 12 months out is now up at Seeking Alpha . I am as nerdy as can be, and follow...
Sunday, January 30, 2022

On the retirement of Justice Breyer: is this any way to run a country?

›
  - by New Deal democrat Long long ago I remember reading that Justices William Brennan and Thurgood Marshall, both about 70 years old at th...
Saturday, January 29, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . While most of the chatter this past week was about inflation an...
Friday, January 28, 2022

Real personal income and spending both decline in December; no imminent worry but evidence of softening

›
   - by New Deal democrat Nominal personal income rose 0.3% in December, while spending declined -0.6%. In real terms after inflation, perso...
Thursday, January 27, 2022

Real Q4 GDP completes the Boom of 2021, while long leading components warn of weaker 2022 to come

›
    - by New Deal democrat Nominal GDP increased 6.9% in the 4th Quarter of 2021. After taking into account inflation, it increased 1.7%: Th...

With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs

›
    - by New Deal democrat With seasonality behind us, it is apparent that Omicron has resulted in increased layoffs. New claims declined 30...
Wednesday, January 26, 2022

New home sales surge, while house price measures decelerate; expect deceleration or even downturns in each

›
   - by New Deal democrat Since I didn’t post yesterday, let me catch up today with a note on both new home sales and prices. New home sales...
Monday, January 24, 2022

A historical note on US Treasury interest rates and stock prices

›
   - by New Deal democrat Over the weekend I was asked by two people what is going on in the markets. That’s usually a sign that there has b...
Saturday, January 22, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 17 - 21 at Seeking Alpha

›
   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . A few months ago, in the midst of the Boom, virtually every ind...
Friday, January 21, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard: Omicron has peaked; now what?

›
   - by New Deal democrat Let’s start out with the good, or at least less catastrophic news: it’s almost certain that the Omicron wave has p...
Thursday, January 20, 2022

Omicron and seasonality bedevil new jobless claims

›
   - by New Deal democrat It is likely that the effects of Omicron as well as quirks of seasonality were behind this week’s big jump in new ...
Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Housing ends 2021 with a bang

›
   - by New Deal democrat Housing ended 2021 with a bang, as housing starts (blue in the graph below, left scale) increased to 1.702 million...