Saturday, January 29, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . While most of the chatter this past week was about inflation an...
Friday, January 28, 2022

Real personal income and spending both decline in December; no imminent worry but evidence of softening

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   - by New Deal democrat Nominal personal income rose 0.3% in December, while spending declined -0.6%. In real terms after inflation, perso...
Thursday, January 27, 2022

Real Q4 GDP completes the Boom of 2021, while long leading components warn of weaker 2022 to come

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    - by New Deal democrat Nominal GDP increased 6.9% in the 4th Quarter of 2021. After taking into account inflation, it increased 1.7%: Th...

With seasonality over, it is clear that Omicron is responsible for increased layoffs

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    - by New Deal democrat With seasonality behind us, it is apparent that Omicron has resulted in increased layoffs. New claims declined 30...
Wednesday, January 26, 2022

New home sales surge, while house price measures decelerate; expect deceleration or even downturns in each

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   - by New Deal democrat Since I didn’t post yesterday, let me catch up today with a note on both new home sales and prices. New home sales...
Monday, January 24, 2022

A historical note on US Treasury interest rates and stock prices

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   - by New Deal democrat Over the weekend I was asked by two people what is going on in the markets. That’s usually a sign that there has b...
Saturday, January 22, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 17 - 21 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . A few months ago, in the midst of the Boom, virtually every ind...
Friday, January 21, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard: Omicron has peaked; now what?

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s start out with the good, or at least less catastrophic news: it’s almost certain that the Omicron wave has p...
Thursday, January 20, 2022

Omicron and seasonality bedevil new jobless claims

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   - by New Deal democrat It is likely that the effects of Omicron as well as quirks of seasonality were behind this week’s big jump in new ...
Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Housing ends 2021 with a bang

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   - by New Deal democrat Housing ended 2021 with a bang, as housing starts (blue in the graph below, left scale) increased to 1.702 million...
Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Short term economic forecast through mid year 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat My short term forecast for the first half of this year is up at Seeking Alpha. This forecast is based on the same ...
Monday, January 17, 2022

Fox News and white grievance

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  - by New Deal democrat In his recent book “Kill Switch,” Adam Jentleson, a former aide to the late Senator Harry Reid, persuasively argues...
Saturday, January 15, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 10 - 14 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . In addition to Omicron, commodity prices and interest rates ar...
Friday, January 14, 2022

December real retail sales tank; industrial production also declines; consumer slowdown seems nearly certain

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   - by New Deal democrat Two days ago, in connection with consumer inflation, I reiterated that “we certainly are at a point where a sharp ...
Thursday, January 13, 2022

Continuing unemployment claims make new 45+ year low

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   - by New Deal democrat New claims increased 23,000 last week to 230,000. The 4 week average of new claims increased 6,250 to 210,750: The...