Saturday, January 22, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 17 - 21 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . A few months ago, in the midst of the Boom, virtually every ind...
Friday, January 21, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard: Omicron has peaked; now what?

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   - by New Deal democrat Let’s start out with the good, or at least less catastrophic news: it’s almost certain that the Omicron wave has p...
Thursday, January 20, 2022

Omicron and seasonality bedevil new jobless claims

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   - by New Deal democrat It is likely that the effects of Omicron as well as quirks of seasonality were behind this week’s big jump in new ...
Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Housing ends 2021 with a bang

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   - by New Deal democrat Housing ended 2021 with a bang, as housing starts (blue in the graph below, left scale) increased to 1.702 million...
Tuesday, January 18, 2022

Short term economic forecast through mid year 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat My short term forecast for the first half of this year is up at Seeking Alpha. This forecast is based on the same ...
Monday, January 17, 2022

Fox News and white grievance

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  - by New Deal democrat In his recent book “Kill Switch,” Adam Jentleson, a former aide to the late Senator Harry Reid, persuasively argues...
Saturday, January 15, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 10 - 14 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . In addition to Omicron, commodity prices and interest rates ar...
Friday, January 14, 2022

December real retail sales tank; industrial production also declines; consumer slowdown seems nearly certain

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   - by New Deal democrat Two days ago, in connection with consumer inflation, I reiterated that “we certainly are at a point where a sharp ...
Thursday, January 13, 2022

Continuing unemployment claims make new 45+ year low

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   - by New Deal democrat New claims increased 23,000 last week to 230,000. The 4 week average of new claims increased 6,250 to 210,750: The...
Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Consumer inflation lessens in December; real wages increase, but a consumer slowdown remains likely

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   - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices increased 0.5% in December, a deceleration from the past several months. But this is still well ab...
Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for January 11: good news and bad news

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   - by New Deal democrat With no new economic releases today, let me give you a brief update on the fast-moving Omicron wave. First, the go...
Monday, January 10, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for January 10: how “mild” Omicron is depends upon how much you lag the data

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   - by New Deal democrat So, how “mild” or not, is Omicron? It depends on whether you lag the data on hospitalizations and deaths or not. T...
Saturday, January 8, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 3 - 7 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Surprisingly, Omicron has not had any wide impact on the coinci...
Friday, January 7, 2022

December jobs report: more signs of real tightness, while new jobs added are (seasonally?) disappointing

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   - by New Deal democrat There were three big questions I had going into this jobs report:  1. whether the big decrease in new jobless clai...
Thursday, January 6, 2022

Initial and continuing jobless claims: 2022 starts out where 2021 left off

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   - by New Deal democrat The labor market in 2022 started out where it left off in 2021, as new claims increased slightly, by 7,000, to 207...