Saturday, January 15, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 10 - 14 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . In addition to Omicron, commodity prices and interest rates ar...
Friday, January 14, 2022

December real retail sales tank; industrial production also declines; consumer slowdown seems nearly certain

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   - by New Deal democrat Two days ago, in connection with consumer inflation, I reiterated that “we certainly are at a point where a sharp ...
Thursday, January 13, 2022

Continuing unemployment claims make new 45+ year low

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   - by New Deal democrat New claims increased 23,000 last week to 230,000. The 4 week average of new claims increased 6,250 to 210,750: The...
Wednesday, January 12, 2022

Consumer inflation lessens in December; real wages increase, but a consumer slowdown remains likely

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   - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices increased 0.5% in December, a deceleration from the past several months. But this is still well ab...
Tuesday, January 11, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for January 11: good news and bad news

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   - by New Deal democrat With no new economic releases today, let me give you a brief update on the fast-moving Omicron wave. First, the go...
Monday, January 10, 2022

Coronavirus dashboard for January 10: how “mild” Omicron is depends upon how much you lag the data

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   - by New Deal democrat So, how “mild” or not, is Omicron? It depends on whether you lag the data on hospitalizations and deaths or not. T...
Saturday, January 8, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 3 - 7 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Surprisingly, Omicron has not had any wide impact on the coinci...
Friday, January 7, 2022

December jobs report: more signs of real tightness, while new jobs added are (seasonally?) disappointing

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   - by New Deal democrat There were three big questions I had going into this jobs report:  1. whether the big decrease in new jobless clai...
Thursday, January 6, 2022

Initial and continuing jobless claims: 2022 starts out where 2021 left off

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   - by New Deal democrat The labor market in 2022 started out where it left off in 2021, as new claims increased slightly, by 7,000, to 207...
Wednesday, January 5, 2022

November JOLTS report: imagine, if you will, a game of musical chairs

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   - by New Deal democrat Imagine a game like musical chairs, except that some players are the chairs (employers) as well as people who want...
Tuesday, January 4, 2022

First data releases of 2022 confirm manufacturing strength, construction slowdown

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   - by New Deal democrat The first December data, the forward-looking ISM manufacturing report, has been released. Yesterday construction s...
Monday, January 3, 2022

Grading my 2021 forecasts

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 - by New Deal democrat Critical self-examination is, or at least ought to be, part of the process of making forecasts. After all, how can y...
Sunday, January 2, 2022

Weekly Indicators for December 27 - 31 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat The last edition of Weekly Indicators for 2021 is up at Seeking Alpha. I have been watching restaurant reservatio...
Friday, December 31, 2021

Hopeful New Year

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    - by New Deal democrat In view of the continued conflagration of the COVID pandemic, I am eschewing the traditional “Happy New Year!” sa...
Thursday, December 30, 2021

The labor market closes out 2021 on the best note yet

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   - by New Deal democrat The final economic data in 2021 was this morning’s report on initial and continued jobless claims. And the good n...
Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for year-end 2021: the Graph of the Year, where we are now, and where we are probably going

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   - by New Deal democrat At the end of the 2nd year of the pandemic, a little self-assessment of what I got right and wrong, where we are a...