Saturday, January 8, 2022

Weekly Indicators for January 3 - 7 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Surprisingly, Omicron has not had any wide impact on the coinci...
Friday, January 7, 2022

December jobs report: more signs of real tightness, while new jobs added are (seasonally?) disappointing

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   - by New Deal democrat There were three big questions I had going into this jobs report:  1. whether the big decrease in new jobless clai...
Thursday, January 6, 2022

Initial and continuing jobless claims: 2022 starts out where 2021 left off

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   - by New Deal democrat The labor market in 2022 started out where it left off in 2021, as new claims increased slightly, by 7,000, to 207...
Wednesday, January 5, 2022

November JOLTS report: imagine, if you will, a game of musical chairs

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   - by New Deal democrat Imagine a game like musical chairs, except that some players are the chairs (employers) as well as people who want...
Tuesday, January 4, 2022

First data releases of 2022 confirm manufacturing strength, construction slowdown

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   - by New Deal democrat The first December data, the forward-looking ISM manufacturing report, has been released. Yesterday construction s...
Monday, January 3, 2022

Grading my 2021 forecasts

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 - by New Deal democrat Critical self-examination is, or at least ought to be, part of the process of making forecasts. After all, how can y...
Sunday, January 2, 2022

Weekly Indicators for December 27 - 31 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat The last edition of Weekly Indicators for 2021 is up at Seeking Alpha. I have been watching restaurant reservatio...
Friday, December 31, 2021

Hopeful New Year

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    - by New Deal democrat In view of the continued conflagration of the COVID pandemic, I am eschewing the traditional “Happy New Year!” sa...
Thursday, December 30, 2021

The labor market closes out 2021 on the best note yet

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   - by New Deal democrat The final economic data in 2021 was this morning’s report on initial and continued jobless claims. And the good n...
Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for year-end 2021: the Graph of the Year, where we are now, and where we are probably going

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   - by New Deal democrat At the end of the 2nd year of the pandemic, a little self-assessment of what I got right and wrong, where we are a...
Tuesday, December 28, 2021

House price increases continue to show strong market at the end

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   - by New Deal democrat The last housing market data for 2021, the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes, were reported this morning....
Sunday, December 26, 2021

Weekly Indicators for December 20 - 24 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Surprisingly, so far the Omicron variant has had no deleterious ...
Thursday, December 23, 2021

Income, spending, layoffs, and new home sales all point to a continuing expansion in 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat We got our last batch of data before Christmas this morning. Almost all of the news was positive. I will be very b...
Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Final existing home sales report of 2021 is positive

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   - by New Deal democrat As we wind down the year, most of the remaining data will be from the housing sector. Tomorrow we get new home sal...
Tuesday, December 21, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for December 21: exponential spread is here

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    - by New Deal democrat As I warned you on Saturday, there might be some hooky-playing this week; and as I also said, that was “Omicron p...
Saturday, December 18, 2021

Weekly Indicators for December 13 - 17 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat [Brief programming note: this coming week will only see existing home sales on Wednesday, and new home sales plus ...
Friday, December 17, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard: an urgent warning about Omicron’s exponential spread

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   - by New Deal democrat Here is a graph of the growth in Omicron vs. Delta cases in London from 2 days ago: Shocking, isn’t it? Now here i...