Monday, September 13, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for September 13: on the downside of the Delta wave, vaccinations make all the difference

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    - by New Deal democrat With each passing day, it becomes increasingly likely that the peak of the Delta wave was just before Labor Day. ...
Saturday, September 11, 2021

Weekly Indicators for September 6 - 10 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The big surprise of the past several months has been how little ...
Friday, September 10, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for September 10: was Labor Day indeed the peak of the Delta wave?

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    - by New Deal democrat I have been saying for some time that the Delta wave would probably peak around Labor Day. It’s not certain yet, ...
Thursday, September 9, 2021

Jobless claims blow away the Delta wave (but beware Labor Day seasonality)

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s initial jobless claims report makes it shockingly evident that the Delta wave has had no appreciab...
Wednesday, September 8, 2021

July JOLTS report shows market still out of equilibrium, no additional hiring from early termination of benefits

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for July is particularly important, because July was the first full month after a numb...
Tuesday, September 7, 2021

The unemployment rate is not *uniquely* overestimating the “true” employment situation

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    - by New Deal democrat Bill McBride a/k/a Calculated Risk put up an entry over the weekend positing that the employment situation is wor...
Saturday, September 4, 2021

Weekly Indicators for August 30 - September 3 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Even the indicators which should be most sensitive to rhe ragi...
Friday, September 3, 2021

August jobs report: some weak points, but the underlying very good trend continues

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   - by New Deal democrat While the NBER has declared that the recession ended in April 2020, neither the King nor Queen of Coincident Indi...
Thursday, September 2, 2021

Jobless claims show continuing improvement, now well within normal expansion range

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   - by New Deal democrat Way back at the beginning of spring, I set a goal of initial claims being 400,000 or less by Labor Day as a marker...
Wednesday, September 1, 2021

Producer sector remains on fire, while two most important indicators of consumer sector falter

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   - by New Deal democrat As has been the pattern for the last several months, August data started out with a strong reading on manufacturin...
Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard: the Delta wave starts to recede in the South, and migrates North

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   - by New Deal democrat Ultimately, that I have to continue to post this material is depressing. At least 80% of all US adults and most te...
Monday, August 30, 2021

A fundamentals-based look at the consumer indicates the expansion is in good shape for now

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   - by New Deal democrat I was going to update the Coronavirus dashboard today, but since half of the States no longer bother to report ove...
Saturday, August 28, 2021

Forecast-palooza: Weekly Indicators, Short Term, and Long Leading Forecast all posted at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Despite the Delta wave raging, the consumer data continues to be...
Friday, August 27, 2021

July personal income and spending: return to normalcy, and normalcy is good

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   - by New Deal democrat How well personal income and spending held up throughout the pandemic is one of the best things about the governme...
Thursday, August 26, 2021

Initial and continuing jobless claims: the good news continues

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    - by New Deal democrat The good news for both initial and continued claims continued this week. Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 353...