Saturday, August 28, 2021

Forecast-palooza: Weekly Indicators, Short Term, and Long Leading Forecast all posted at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Despite the Delta wave raging, the consumer data continues to be...
Friday, August 27, 2021

July personal income and spending: return to normalcy, and normalcy is good

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   - by New Deal democrat How well personal income and spending held up throughout the pandemic is one of the best things about the governme...
Thursday, August 26, 2021

Initial and continuing jobless claims: the good news continues

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    - by New Deal democrat The good news for both initial and continued claims continued this week. Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 353...
Wednesday, August 25, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for August 25: is the Delta wave close to peaking?

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ve been writing for about a month that, if the US outbreak followed the cycle of India and the UK, in which the ...
Tuesday, August 24, 2021

July new home sales down nearly 30% from peak, as prices perhaps start to plateau

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 Here   - by New Deal democrat Unlike yesterday’s existing home sales, today’s report on new home sales is much more economically significan...
Monday, August 23, 2021

A note on existing home sales

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   - by New Deal democrat Existing home sales are the least noteworthy of the housing data, because of the very limited economic activity mo...
Saturday, August 21, 2021

Weekly Indicators for August 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Surprisingly, Delta still has not made much of an impact on the ...
Friday, August 20, 2021

Housing update for 2022 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat Following up on Wednesday’s post here, I took a comprehensive look at housing construction and sales, and their im...
Thursday, August 19, 2021

Initial claims: simply, good news

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    - by New Deal democrat The bottom line for both initial and continued claims this week is simple: unadulterated, absolute good news. Ini...
Wednesday, August 18, 2021

July housing permits and starts: yellow flag for economy in 2022

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   - by New Deal democrat Last month I noted that, from here on, the comparisons with 2020 in housing would become much more challenging. An...
Tuesday, August 17, 2021

July industrial production (good news) and retail sales (bad news still being pretty good news)

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning brought the July report for the King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, as well as one ...
Monday, August 16, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for August 16: some (relatively) “good” news, some bad news

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  - by New Deal democrat Recently I’ve speculated in a few places that Delta may be acting as a backfire-type firebreak against Lamdba, whic...
Saturday, August 14, 2021

Weekly Indicators for August 9 - 13 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . For the first time, there are some significant if still minor ...
Friday, August 13, 2021

Here is my inflation worry

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    - by New Deal democrat I want to follow up on a comment I made yesterday in connection with Wednesday’s consumer price report. It is cer...
Thursday, August 12, 2021

Initial claims continue rangebound, while continuing claims continue slow decline

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 12,000 this week to 375,000, still 7,000 above their best pandemic levels of 368,0...

July consumer inflation: the spike subsides somewhat, but we are close to the limit of “transitory”

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   - by New Deal democrat For the last two months my theme has been that if the spike in inflation only lasted two or three months, it was n...
Wednesday, August 11, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for August 11: evidence that the Delta wave may be peaking in the earliest hit States

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    - by New Deal democrat My framework of analyzing the economy via leading, coincident, and lagging indicators continues to come in handy ...
Tuesday, August 10, 2021

Scenes from the July jobs report

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   - by New Deal democrat [Note: I haven’t put up a Coronavirus dashboard in almost a week. I’ll try to get around to that later today or to...