Saturday, July 31, 2021

Weekly Indicators for July 26 - 30 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Ironically, as the bond market smells weakness ahead, driving lo...
Friday, July 30, 2021

June personal income and spending show pandemic cushion approaching depletion

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  - by New Deal democrat How well personal income and spending held up throughout the pandemic is one of the best things about the governmen...
Thursday, July 29, 2021

Q2 2021 GDP: goodbye recession, hasta la vista recovery, hello expansion

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   - by New Deal democrat Nominal GDP before inflation increased 3.1%, while r eal GDP for the 2nd Quarter increased 1.6%. The real annual r...

Initial claims continue two-month stall

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined 24,000 this week, but at 400,000 this was the 2nd week in a row starting with a “...
Wednesday, July 28, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for July 28: you’re reading the right blog, ghoulish edition

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   - by New Deal democrat In writing about the economy, I make use of long and short leading indicators to forecast coincident indicators. I...
Tuesday, July 27, 2021

Housing sales decline, while price surges continue

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   - by New Deal democrat So I take a little one day road trip on my vacation, and come back to find much weeping and gnashing of teeth and...
Saturday, July 24, 2021

Weekly Indicators for July 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. No visible impact on the economy yet due to the Delta wave. In ...
Friday, July 23, 2021

Comments on existing home sale prices

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   - by New Deal democrat Existing home sales were reported yesterday. Since, although they are about 90% of the market, they have much les...
Thursday, July 22, 2021

New jobless claims rise sharply; is the Delta wave beginning to take its economic toll?

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    - by New Deal democrat New jobless claims are the most important weekly economic datapoint with regard to the effects of vaccination pro...
Wednesday, July 21, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for July 21: brace yourself for the surge in deaths

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   - by New Deal democrat I have been warning since late June that the situation would likely look very different by the end of July. By 2 ...
Tuesday, July 20, 2021

Housing permits continue decline in June; more challenging YoY comparisons ahead

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   - by New Deal democrat First, a brief comment about the NBER’s declaration yesterday that the COVID recession ended in April 2020. I am n...
Monday, July 19, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for July 19: The UK as Delta wave trailblazer for the US

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   - by New Deal democrat An initial note: I am on vacation this week, so posting is likely to be sporadic. I’ll still hit the important dat...
Saturday, July 17, 2021

Weekly Indicators for July 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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    - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. All timeframes continue positive, but the renewed outbreak of...
Friday, July 16, 2021

June retail sales decline after taking inflation into account, but overall pandemic gains “stick”

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   - by New Deal democrat As usual, retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it gives us so much information about the consum...
Thursday, July 15, 2021

Jobless claims make new pandemic lows; but the virus is back in control

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   - by New Deal democrat New jobless claims are the most important weekly economic datapoint with regard to the effects of vaccination prog...

Industrial production slightly positive overall, but with negative revisions

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   - by New Deal democrat Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. It is the single datum that most frequently coincides ...
Wednesday, July 14, 2021

Real wages decrease sharply - at least, if you include used vehicle prices

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   - by New Deal democrat As I pointed out yesterday, the big increase in inflation over the past few months has made the YoY change in real...
Tuesday, July 13, 2021

Consumer inflation rises the most in over a decade; will it draw the Fed’s attention?

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me start my take on this month’s inflation report with my concluding remarks last month: “this is not a big d...
Monday, July 12, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for July 12: the completely preventable “delta wave” is here

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   - by New Deal democrat The completely unnecessary and preventable “delta wave” of COVID infections, hospitalizations, and deaths is now ...