Saturday, February 27, 2021

Weekly Indicators for February 22 - 26 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. After months of virtually no changes in any of the time frames, ...
Friday, February 26, 2021

January personal income and spending show how important government stimulus has been to keeping the economy afloat

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s report on January personal income and spending shows just how important the stimulus packages enact...
Thursday, February 25, 2021

Initial jobless claims: it appears that the worst of the winter 2020-21 increase is behind us

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   - by New Deal democrat Let me start off this week’s review of initial jobless claims by pre-debunking something I am sure is going to be ...
Wednesday, February 24, 2021

New home sales rise m/m, but signal caution for housing market going forward

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   - by New Deal democrat New home sales increased to a three month annualized high of 923,000 in January. This is of a piece with the posi...
Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for February 23: vaccinations start to have a dramatic effect

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   - by New Deal democrat Total US coronavirus deaths: 500,310 Total US confirmed infections: 28,190,159 Total US vaccinated (at least 1 dos...
Monday, February 22, 2021

You’re reading the right blog: 2021 economy edition

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 - by New Deal democrat “You’re reading the right blog” is an old chestnut (for me anyway) that I used to say from time to time to highlight...
Saturday, February 20, 2021

Weekly Indicators for February 15 - 19 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . We are continuing to see breakout strength in a number of  sho...
Friday, February 19, 2021

Strength in housing and cars, oh my!

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   - by New Deal democrat The two consumer goods which turn down before recessions, and up before recoveries, are houses and motor vehicles,...
Thursday, February 18, 2021

Jobless claims: huge upward revisions for the second week in a row

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   - by New Deal democrat The story this week is the repeated massive upward revisions to last week’s numbers This week, on a unadjusted bas...
Wednesday, February 17, 2021

Industrial production continues strong growth

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   - by New Deal democrat If real retail sales (reported on in the prior post) is the best proxy for the health of the consumer, Industrial ...

Blockbuster January retail sales presage gains in jobs

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   - by New Deal democrat [NOTE: I’ll report separately on industrial production later this morning.] Real retail sales is my bellwether for...
Tuesday, February 16, 2021

My long leading forecast for all of 2021

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   - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at Seeking Alpha . Usually after Q4 GDP is posted at the end of January, I update my long le...
Monday, February 15, 2021

On the effects of COVID vaccination, Israel is the bellwether

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   - by New Deal democrat I’m beginning to see some clickbait reports of COVID diagnoses after two doses of the vaccine, together with breat...
Saturday, February 13, 2021

Weekly Indicators for February 8 - 12 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . We are beginning to see some changes in the short leading timef...
Friday, February 12, 2021

Welcome to the vaccination Hunger Games

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  - by New Deal democrat That, dear reader, is a slight variation on what my sibling unit said to me when I related the saga of my attempts ...
Thursday, February 11, 2021

Initial and continued jobless claims: signs that the worst of the pandemic related layoffs may be behind us

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   - by New Deal democrat Some - very relative - good news in unemployment claims this week. It looks like the recent increase in new claims...
Wednesday, February 10, 2021

January inflation still tame; real wages still above previous 1973 peak

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   - by New Deal democrat Seasonally adjusted consumer prices rose 0.3% in January. As a result, over the past several months there has been...
Tuesday, February 9, 2021

December JOLTS report shows renewed stalled jobs market due to out of control pandemic

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for December confirmed a jobs market recovery that has  paused due to the increasing e...
Monday, February 8, 2021

The short term 2021 economic forecast + brief coronavirus update

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   - by New Deal democrat At the beginning of each year, I have usually posted both short and long term forecasts. Because of the impact of ...
Saturday, February 6, 2021

Weekly Indicators for February 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. All of the leading sectors - manufacturing, housing, interest ra...