Saturday, January 23, 2021

Weekly Indicators for January 18 - 22 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The pandemic, and the monetary and interest rate responses to ...
Friday, January 22, 2021

A detailed, updated look at the housing market

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    - by New Deal democrat Existing home sales for December were reported this morning at 6.76 million annualized, just below the October 10...
Thursday, January 21, 2021

Initial jobless claims: still elevated compared with several months ago, another negative jobs report for January a possibility

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   - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims this week came within a hair of meeting my criteria for a change to an upward trend.  On a ...
Wednesday, January 20, 2021

Happy Inauguration Day!

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    - by New Deal democrat Today is a day for rejoicing! Back to the salt mines tomorrow.
Tuesday, January 19, 2021

“Those who cannot see must feel:” a retrospective on the Trump presidency

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   - by New Deal democrat Four years ago I wrote “ Those Who Cannot See Must Feel ,” which is the translation of an old German saying that I...
Monday, January 18, 2021

NFIB small business optimism vs. reality

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   - by New Deal democrat This is a really slow news week - on the economy!  My retrospective on the Trump Presidency is nearly complete and...
Sunday, January 17, 2021

The Federalist Papers #74 on insurrections, treason, and the pardon power: an argument that such pardons would be invalid as “arising in a case of impeachment”

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 - by New Deal democrat The Insurrectionists from January 6 are already asking Trump for pardons. Probably the only thing that would hold hi...
Saturday, January 16, 2021

Weekly Indicators for January 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . While initial jobless claims have continued to worsen, there i...
Friday, January 15, 2021

Good news (industrial production) and bad news (retail sales)

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    - by New Deal democrat This morning’s two reports on industrial production and retail sales for December were a case of good news and ba...
Thursday, January 14, 2021

Jobless claims highest in three months - but seasonality still playing a huge role

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   - by New Deal democrat On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 231,335 to 1,151,015. Seasonally adjusted claims also rose by 18...
Wednesday, January 13, 2021

December inflation: real aggregate wages fall as real average wages rise due to compositional effects

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    - by New Deal democrat Consumer inflation typically rises as expansions continue, and declines once recessions start. Once a recovery be...
Tuesday, January 12, 2021

November JOLTS report shows renewed impact of pandemic, partial lockdowns

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for November (remember - a month in which there were total job gains) showed a jobs ma...
Monday, January 11, 2021

Scenes from the December jobs report

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    - by New Deal democrat Friday’s December jobs report saw the first decline in employment since the lockdowns of March and April. Let’s t...

Programming note

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   - by New Deal democrat Four year ago I wrote a valedictory piece about the Obama Administration, and separately wrote of my fears of what...
Saturday, January 9, 2021

Weekly Indicators for January 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Although yesterday’s employment report was negative, there is ...
Friday, January 8, 2021

December jobs report: I told you so - jobs actually declined in December; BUT employment primed for takeoff once pandemic abates

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    - by New Deal democrat Important: There was a huge amount of seasonality in this report. This is common for December, but the issue was ...
Thursday, January 7, 2021

Jobless claims start 2021 continuing flat to increasing trend; negative December jobs number increasingly likely

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    - by New Deal democrat On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 77,400 to 922,072. Seasonally adjusted claims declined by 3,000...
Wednesday, January 6, 2021

Coronavirus dashboard for January 6, 2021: new infections vastly outpacing vaccinations

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   - by New Deal democrat Total confirmed COVID-19 infections: 21,046,195* Infections last 7 days average: 219,253 Total deaths: 357,258 De...