Saturday, November 14, 2020

Weekly Indicators for November 9 - 13 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . With Joe Biden assuming the Presidency on January 20, and a an...
Friday, November 13, 2020

Lack of inflation in September consistent with weak demand; real wages increase, but will the pandemic derail the gains?

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    - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices were unchanged in October, both on a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis: But while the lack...
Thursday, November 12, 2020

New and continued jobless claims: best week of the pandemic; can it survive a new emergency?

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   - by New Deal democrat This week’s new and continued jobless claims, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, declined to new pandemic lo...
Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Semptember JOLTS report shows jobs recovery has been real - but will it continue?

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for September showed a jobs market that continues to be, ever so slowly, on the mend. Ope...
Monday, November 9, 2020

Coronavirus dashboard for November 9: Wow (and not in a good way)

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   - by New Deal democrat US total infections: 9,968,155* US average last 7 days: 108,737 US total deaths: 237,570 US average last 7 days: ...
Sunday, November 8, 2020

The 2020 Presidential and Senate races: a postmortem

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   - by New Deal democrat Way back in June I started writing nowcasts for the 2020 elections.  Here’s what my very first map looked like:  ...
Saturday, November 7, 2020

Weekly Indicators for November 2 - 6 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . With the almost certain election of Joe Biden to the Presidency...
Friday, November 6, 2020

October jobs report: extremely strong monthly gains overall, but at this rate still another 18 months from full jobs recovery

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    - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : 638,000 million jobs gained. The gains since May total about 55% of the 22.1 million job losses in Ma...
Thursday, November 5, 2020

Slow pace of improvement in jobless claims continues

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   - by New Deal democrat This week’s new jobless claims were essentially unchanged (but at their pandemic low), while continued claims cont...
Wednesday, November 4, 2020

The Morning After

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   - by New Deal democrat Last night was truly a dark night of the soul. The rule of law in an American Republic simply will not withstand t...
Monday, November 2, 2020

September housing construction and October manufacturing both on a tear

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   - by New Deal democrat It’s the first of the month, so we get the last laggard for September (construction spending) and the first read ...
Sunday, November 1, 2020

The final 2020 Presidential Electoral College forecast: Biden 350, Trump 181, 7 toss-ups

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   - by New Deal democrat Here is my final nowcast for the Presidential 2020 election, based on State rather than national polling in the pa...