Saturday, November 7, 2020

Weekly Indicators for November 2 - 6 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . With the almost certain election of Joe Biden to the Presidency...
Friday, November 6, 2020

October jobs report: extremely strong monthly gains overall, but at this rate still another 18 months from full jobs recovery

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    - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : 638,000 million jobs gained. The gains since May total about 55% of the 22.1 million job losses in Ma...
Thursday, November 5, 2020

Slow pace of improvement in jobless claims continues

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   - by New Deal democrat This week’s new jobless claims were essentially unchanged (but at their pandemic low), while continued claims cont...
Wednesday, November 4, 2020

The Morning After

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   - by New Deal democrat Last night was truly a dark night of the soul. The rule of law in an American Republic simply will not withstand t...
Monday, November 2, 2020

September housing construction and October manufacturing both on a tear

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   - by New Deal democrat It’s the first of the month, so we get the last laggard for September (construction spending) and the first read ...
Sunday, November 1, 2020

The final 2020 Presidential Electoral College forecast: Biden 350, Trump 181, 7 toss-ups

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   - by New Deal democrat Here is my final nowcast for the Presidential 2020 election, based on State rather than national polling in the pa...

The final 2020 Senate nowcast: 51 Democrats, 48 GOPers, 1 true toss-up

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   - by New Deal democrat Here are the final maps for the Senate, including all polls since October 1. I’ll post the Presidential nowcast se...
Saturday, October 31, 2020

Weekly Indicators for October 26 - 30 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Neither of the two constraints determining where the economy wi...
Friday, October 30, 2020

Personal income and spending both surprisingly continued to increase in September, plus a note on GDP

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday the first estimate of Q3 GDP was reported. Since this report includes 2 long leading indicators, it give...
Thursday, October 29, 2020

Jobless claims: continued slow progress

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    - by New Deal democrat A quick note about the first report of Q3 GDP released this morning: the rebound is only about 2/3’s of the decli...
Wednesday, October 28, 2020

Coronavirus dashboard for October 27: The EU is now worse than the US

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   - by New Deal democrat Total US confirmed infections: 8,777,432* Average US infections last 7 days: 71,833 (new record high) Total US de...