Tuesday, October 27, 2020

An examination of the Framers’ arguments as to how the US Supreme Court would function: The Federalist Papers No’s. 78, 79, and 81

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   - by New Deal democrat This is a follow-up on yesterday’s post regarding the history of the Judiciary under republics. In that post I p...
Monday, October 26, 2020

A brief history of the Judiciary under Republics; the radical departure of the US Constitution, and how to reform it now

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   - by New Deal democrat I’ll have a note up, probably at Seeking Alpha tomorrow, on new home sales, which get reported later this morning...
Sunday, October 25, 2020

The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcasts: in 2020 the “blue wall” looks very likely to hold, but expect surprises in the Senate

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   - by New Deal democrat Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, ...
Saturday, October 24, 2020

Weekly Indicators for October 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Although there has been no new stimulus package, and none look...
Thursday, October 22, 2020

Jobless claims: a very positive reversal

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    - by New Deal democrat This week’s new jobless claims report not only reversed last week’s increase, but declined below 800,000 for the ...
Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Coronavirus dashboard for October 20: some good news among the gloom

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   - by New Deal democrat Total US confirmed infections: 8,273,296* Average US infections last 7 days: 59,527 (vs. recent low of 34,354 on ...

September housing construction: another very positive month

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   - by New Deal democrat Yesterday September housing permits and starts were reported. Permits made yet another 10+ year high. This bodes ...
Monday, October 19, 2020

Two noteworthy tweets

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    - by New Deal democrat It’s a slow economic news week. Housing starts and permits are reported tomorrow, and jobless claims and existing...
Sunday, October 18, 2020

The 2020 election nowcast: Biden widens national lead; Senate races likely to follow Presidential result in each State

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    - by New Deal democrat Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days,...
Saturday, October 17, 2020

Weekly Indicators for October 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . What was most noteworthy about the past week is the confirmatio...
Friday, October 16, 2020

Real retail sales continue (inexplicably) strong, still bode well for employment

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   - by New Deal democrat This morning we got two important monthly September reports: industrial production and retail sales. I have more t...
Thursday, October 15, 2020

Jobless claims: only one week’s data, but cause for significant concern

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   - by New Deal democrat Today marked the biggest increase in new jobless claims in two months, and one of the two biggest increases since...
Wednesday, October 14, 2020

Coronavirus dashboard for October 14: winter is coming

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   - by New Deal democrat Total US confirmed cases: 7,806,805* Average cases last 7 days: 51,038 Total US deaths: 215,887 Average deaths la...
Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Consumer prices rise a “normal” 0.2% in September

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   - by New Deal democrat In September Consumer prices rose a “normal” 0.2%, the first such typical increase since the pandemic began (blue ...
Monday, October 12, 2020

College educational attainment by age demographic

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   - by New Deal democrat There is no economic data today due to the Columbus Day observance. So let me drop this graph of a metric I have ...
Sunday, October 11, 2020

The 2020 Presidential and Senate nowcast: birds coming home to roost

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 - by New Deal democrat Here is my weekly update on the 2020 elections, based on State rather than national polling in the past 30 days, sin...
Saturday, October 10, 2020

Weekly Indicators for October 5 - 9 at Seeking Alpha

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   - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Because the pandemic so quickly and completely put the economy ...
Friday, October 9, 2020

Coronavirus dashboard for October 9: everybody has to touch the hot stove at least once

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   - by New Deal democrat Total confirmed US infections: 7,605,218* Average infections last 7 days: 46,869 Total US deaths: 212,762 Average...