Thursday, February 27, 2020

January durable goods orders show no important weakening

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  - by New Deal democrat Just to update: neither initial jobless claims nor continuing claims met either of my thresholds for concern thi...
Wednesday, February 26, 2020

The impact of coronavirus on my slowdown vs. recession forecast

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 - by New Deal democrat For roughly the last half year, my forecast has been that a slowdown without a recession was the most likely sce...

New home sales complete data confirming rebound

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning’s new single home sales report for January came in at the highest level since July 2007.    As a bri...
Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Housing: prices follow sales, February 2020 edition

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 - by New Deal democrat One of the consistent things I have written about the housing market for going on 10 years is that interest rates...
Monday, February 24, 2020

An updated look at transportation

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 - by New Deal democrat Production of goods and their transport to market should generally move in unison. A month ago I took an extende...
Sunday, February 23, 2020

Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: February 22, 1869

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 - by New Deal democrat On February 22, the Senate took up the revisions that the House of Representatives had made to their proposals fr...
Saturday, February 22, 2020

Weekly Indicators for February 17 - 21 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . Aside from the sudden improvement in new manufacturing order...
Friday, February 21, 2020

Production, transportation, and sales show a stalled economy

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 - by New Deal democrat Below is a graph I put together in a discussion of transportation that I’ll probably post next week at Seeking A...
Thursday, February 20, 2020

Housing analysis at Seeking Alpha; updated jobless claims

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a more detailed analysis of yesterday’s very positive housing permits and starts data, and what it means f...
Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Housing continues to surge

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 - by New Deal democrat Low interest rates continue to fuel a strong upsurge in new housing construction. I’ll put up a more detailed ...
Tuesday, February 18, 2020

Regional Fed Manufacturing Indexes Improving

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 - by New Deal democrat It’s been a really slow newsweek so far, with no important data until tomorrow.  Until then, here’s a note of ...
Saturday, February 15, 2020

Weekly Indicators for February 10 - 14 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Several of the coincident indicators that turned positive ...
Friday, February 14, 2020

Real retail sales continue flat in January; production sector still in recession

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 - by New Deal democrat Retail sales increased nominally by +0.3% in January, while December was revised downward by -0.1%, for a net gai...
Thursday, February 13, 2020

Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: February 9, 1869 (2) The Senate votes to reform the Electoral College

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 - by New Deal democrat As I mentioned several days ago, the Senate endured a pair of marathon sessions on February 8 and 9, 1869, and c...

Have we reached “full employment”? An update

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 - by New Deal democrat As an initial matter, this morning’s initial and continuing jobless claims report were positive as to all metric...
Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Where is the puzzling growth in service jobs coming from?

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 - by New Deal democrat Continuing with my week of follow-up stories based on last Friday’s jobs report, I noted last Friday that there w...
Tuesday, February 11, 2020

December JOLTS report continues the trend of confusing jobs data

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 - by New Deal democrat The December JOLTS report came out this morning, and it continues the streak of confusing employment data. ...
Monday, February 10, 2020

Why I expect further declines in manufacturing jobs

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 - by New Deal democrat This is the week I highlight further information from last Friday’s jobs report.  One thing that struck me i...
Sunday, February 9, 2020

Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: February 9, 1869 (1)

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  - by New Deal democrat The Senate continued its debate on the proposed amendment for a second long day after only a one hour break. Ni...
Saturday, February 8, 2020

Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: February 8 - 9, 1869

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 - by New Deal democrat Note: I fell a little behind on this project. I hope to be fully up to date by the end of this weekend. On Febru...