Saturday, February 1, 2020

Weekly Indicators for January 27 - 31 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicator post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Due to panic (warranted or not) about a coronavirus, the yi...
Friday, January 31, 2020

December 2019 real personal income and spending

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  - by New Deal democrat Real personal income and spending are both coincident indicators. They don’t tell us where the economy is going,...
Thursday, January 30, 2020

Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: January 27, 1869 (1)

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 - by New Deal democrat I have gotten a little behind in this project. Congressional activity picked up considerably in the last week of ...

Mixed signals in Q4 2019 GDP

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  - by New Deal democrat This morning’s Q4 2019 GDP gave us mixed signals. As per my usual practice, I am less interested in what happene...
Wednesday, January 29, 2020

My “official” first half forecast for 2020

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 - by New Deal democrat My short term 6 month forecast has been posted at Seeking Alpha . As usual, clicking over and reading should b...
Tuesday, January 28, 2020

More on house prices

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  - by New Deal democrat The Case Shiller housing indexes for the three month period ending in November were reported this morning. The Y...
Monday, January 27, 2020

Is the “housing choke collar” kicking in?

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning’s December new home sales report raises the question: is the “housing choke collar” kicking in? ...
Sunday, January 26, 2020

Weekly Indicators for January 20 - 24 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat I neglected to post this yesterday.... My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha .  The forecasts remai...
Friday, January 24, 2020

The producer vs. consumer sectors of the economy: a comparison

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a post up at Seeking Alpha , comparing current conditions on the producer side of the economy vs. the cons...
Thursday, January 23, 2020

On the road

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 - by New Deal democrat Today is a traveling day, so no detailed posting. This morning’s initial jobless claims were in line with the ...
Wednesday, January 22, 2020

Why negative transportation indexes don’t support a recession call

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  - by New Deal democrat Every month for at least the past half year there is a spate of bearish economic commentary that relies upon one...
Tuesday, January 21, 2020

Catching up: November JOLTS report

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 - by New Deal democrat Let me catch up on some data I didn’t examine last week: the November JOLTS report. It decomposes the jobs...
Monday, January 20, 2020

For MLK Day: unemployment by race

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 - by New Deal democrat In observance of Martin Luther King’s birthday, almost all US markets are closed and there is no economic data. ...
Saturday, January 18, 2020

Weekly Indicators for January 13 - 17 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The short term forecast has been volatile recently - and was...
Friday, January 17, 2020

Housing BOOM! 2

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 - by New Deal democrat Housing is a very important long leading indicator, and it reflects both the consumer and producer sides of the e...
Thursday, January 16, 2020

The consumer is (probably) still alright: initial jobless claims and retail sales

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 - by New Deal democrat While the producer side of the US economy is almost certainly in a shallow recession, the consumer side has been...
Wednesday, January 15, 2020

Producer sales not keeping up with producer price inputs

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 - by New Deal democrat Not much economic news today, and I normally don’t spend time on the producer price index, but considering the sh...
Tuesday, January 14, 2020

Real wages declined slightly in Q4 2019; nearly flat since last January

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 - by New Deal democrat In December consumer inflation was +0.2%. Since in last Friday’s jobs report average hourly earnings also increas...
Monday, January 13, 2020

Scenes from the December jobs report: leading jobs sectors and wages

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 - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a more detailed look at last Friday’s December jobs report. First, as usual for the past few months,...
Sunday, January 12, 2020

The 2020 Electoral College playing field expands for Democrats

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  - by New Deal democrat Polling firm Morning Consult has an interactive graph measuring Trump approval by State for each month since Ja...