Saturday, December 21, 2019

Weekly Indicators for December 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  Up at Seeking Alpha . Are we just having a slowdown, or actually slipping into co...
Friday, December 20, 2019

The consumer vs. producer divergence widens at year end

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 - by New Deal democrat My economic theme for about the past half year has been the contrast between the floundering producer sector vs....
Thursday, December 19, 2019

Political leanings through time for birth cohorts

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 - by New Deal democrat A chart on “political preferences by generation” from Pew Research has been making the rounds in the past few day...

A yellow flag for initial jobless claims

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 - by New Deal democrat As you know, I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there ...
Wednesday, December 18, 2019

October JOLTS report shows soft patch in employment

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 - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at yesterday morning’s JOLTS report for October. I thought I’d start off this month by step...
Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: December 17, 1868

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 - by New Deal democrat In the Senate, Senators Dixon and Ferry, both Republicans from Connecticut, continued the debate from several day...

November housing and production both up sharply

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 - by New Deal democrat We got two of our final most important reports of 2019 this morning. Both were positive, one strongly so. Sta...
Monday, December 16, 2019

The oncoming generational UK and US political tsunamis

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 - by New Deal democrat No big economic news today, so let me put up a couple of striking charts about the UK election last week. Fi...
Sunday, December 15, 2019

Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: December 15, 1868

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 - by New Deal democrat Sen Orrin S. Ferry (R-Conn), in the course of offering a joint resolution to lift the disabilities mandated by t...
Saturday, December 14, 2019

Weekly Indicators for December 9 - 13 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Every time I am tempted to remove my “recession watch...
Friday, December 13, 2019

November real retail sales show consumption still weakly positive

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 - by New Deal democrat Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms they can tell us so much about the present...
Thursday, December 12, 2019

Off topic: two solutions to home delivery theft

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 - by New Deal democrat By now we all know that theft of packages delivered to people’s home doorstep is a big problem. Here are picture...

Initial claims turn neutral on seasonality, but no red flag

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  - by New Deal democrat As you know, I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there a...
Wednesday, December 11, 2019

November average real wage growth stable, but aggregate growth now puts expansion in second place behind 1990s

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 - by New Deal democrat November consumer inflation came in at +0.3%. Since in last Friday’s jobs report average hourly earnings also inc...
Tuesday, December 10, 2019

Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: December 10, 1868

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 - by New Deal democrat In the Senate, the two proposals for a Fifteenth Amendment to the Constitution were referred to the Judiciary Com...

Scenes from the November jobs report 2: participation and wages

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at the leading sectors of employment from the establishment jobs report. Today let’s look at ...
Monday, December 9, 2019

Scenes from the November jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a more detailed look at last Friday’s November jobs report, in particular a discussion of the more lea...