Saturday, November 16, 2019

Weekly Indicators for November 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Although a few indicators backed off some this week, the o...
Friday, November 15, 2019

Industrial production tanks on GM strikes; Real retail sales decline slightly

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 - by New Deal democrat First, let me briefly address industrial production, which fell -0.8% in October. On its face this is an awful...
Thursday, November 14, 2019

Initial claims continue to show slowdown, but no imminent recession

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  - by New Deal democrat I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs ...
Wednesday, November 13, 2019

Real average and aggregate wages declined in October

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 - b y New Deal democrat October’s consumer inflation reading came in at a surprisingly high +0.4%, which as shown in red in the graph be...
Tuesday, November 12, 2019

How economists blew the analysis of the manufacturing jobs shock

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 - by New Deal democrat I came across this article yesterday, posted by - to his credit - Brad DeLong, whose argument it eviscerates. E...
Monday, November 11, 2019

November leading reports point to slowdown, no recession

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 - by New Deal democrat The leading indicators reported so far this month show that, while manufacturing continues flat or even in contra...
Saturday, November 9, 2019

Weekly Indicators for November 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The biggest story of the week was the move higher in...
Friday, November 8, 2019

Scenes from the October employment report: leading sectors remain poor

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I discussed unemployment and labor force participation from last week’s jobs report, which with the sig...
Thursday, November 7, 2019

Scenes from the October employment report: full employment?

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  - by New Deal democrat Last Friday the household jobs report - the one that tells us about unemployment, underemployment, and labor...
Wednesday, November 6, 2019

A note about turnout in yesterday’s elections

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 - by New Deal democrat I haven’t seen any information yet on how turnout in last night’s elections, particularly in Virginia, which was...
Tuesday, November 5, 2019

September JOLTS report: mixed with “hard” positives and a “soft” negative

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for September was mixed, with a decline in job openings and an increase in layoffs, b...
Monday, November 4, 2019

Q3 GDP points away from a producer-led recession

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 - by New Deal democrat In the past 60 years, most recessions have been consumer-led, and have been preceded by both increases in mortga...
Saturday, November 2, 2019

Weekly Indicators for October 28 - November 1 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The last long leading indicator that I was concerned about,...
Friday, November 1, 2019

October jobs report paints a portrait of a full (or nearly full) employment economy

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 - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES :  +128,000 jobs added (+148,000 ex-Census) U3 unemployment rate up +0.1% from 3.5% to 3.6% U6 un...
Thursday, October 31, 2019

The consumer / employment sector of the economy continues powering along

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 - by New Deal democrat ..... aaaaand, I’m back. Did you miss me? Here is the essence of my view of the economy right now: 1. The pr...
Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Cross one item off the bucket list

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- by New Deal democrat Here’s a picture of what I’ve been doing: Generic picture of water and land ... except, if you look careful...
Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Still traveling

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 - by New Deal democrat I’ve been busy checking off a few items on the bucket list. I’ll be back at work in a couple of days. I’ll po...
Saturday, October 26, 2019

Weekly Indicators for October 21 - 25 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The producer side of the economy generally, and manufactur...
Friday, October 25, 2019

New home sales continue to show improving housing trend

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that durable goods orders showed that manufacturing is still weak. The contrary side of the ec...
Thursday, October 24, 2019

Manufacturing still weak

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 - by New Deal democra t I’m still traveling this morning, but for now let me just note that this morning’s durable goods orders showed a...