Saturday, October 19, 2019

Weekly Indicators for October 14 - 18 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Although the economy, especially in the producer sector, is q...
Friday, October 18, 2019

An important update on the yield curve

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 - by New Deal democrat For the last 10 months, readers of the financial press have been bombarded with stories about the inverted yield ...
Thursday, October 17, 2019

Positive housing, initial claims, and Philly Fed outweigh negative industrial production

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 - b y New Deal democrat So, after a nearly empty week until now, there were four economic reports this morning. Three of them were good....
Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Real retail sales decline slightly in September, but the consumer is still alright

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  - by New Deal democrat Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms they can tell us so much about the presen...
Tuesday, October 15, 2019

The consumer is still alright

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 - by New Deal democrat Way back in 2007, I wrote an article at Daily Kos entitled “Are hard times near? The great decline in interest ra...
Sunday, October 13, 2019

Weekly Indicators for October 7 - 11 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The stars are aligning for the recovery from the present s...
Friday, October 11, 2019

Real average and aggregate wages for September

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 - by New Deal democrat Now that we have the September inflation reading, let’s take a look at real wage growth. First of all, nom...
Thursday, October 10, 2019

Initial claims still positive, negative near term recession

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 - by New Deal democrat I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs ...
Wednesday, October 9, 2019

August JOLTS report: nearly all employment measures now neutral

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  - by New Deal democrat This morning’s JOLTS report for August showed a decline in all metrics m/m as well as a slowing trend overall. ...
Tuesday, October 8, 2019

Scenes from the September jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I shared the best good news from the September jobs report released last Friday: there’s a good a...
Monday, October 7, 2019

Have we finally reached “full employment”?

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 - by New Deal democrat As I noted on Friday, the household report - the one that tells us about unemployment, underemployment, and labor...
Sunday, October 6, 2019

A TV watching recommendation: “David Makes Man”

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 - by New Deal democrat “Well, we all have a face That we hide away forever And we take them out And show ourselves when everyone has gon...
Saturday, October 5, 2019

Weekly Indicators for September 30 - October 4 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . It’s pretty clear that manufacturing is in a recession rig...
Friday, October 4, 2019

September jobs report: excellent in coincident and lagging sectors, cautionary in leading sectors

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 - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES :  +136,000 jobs added (+135,000 ex-Census) U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% from 3.7% to 3.5% (...
Thursday, October 3, 2019

September 2019 motor vehicle sales

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 - by New Deal democrat Motor vehicle sales are a short leading indicator. In particular, on the consumer side, they have typically rolle...
Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Expect a weak report for the leading jobs sectors on Friday

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 - by New Deal democrat September motor vehicle sales will be reported later today, after the domestic US manufacturers post their number...
Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Once again, two sharply contrasting reports to start the month

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  - by New Deal democrat One month ago, I wrote that the first reports in September, construction spending and the ISM manufacturing ind...
Monday, September 30, 2019

Weekly Indicators for September 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . If you’re wondering why it’s so late, it’s because SA prett...
Friday, September 27, 2019

Personal spending shows consumers OK; durable goods shows producers still struggling

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning’s reports on personal income and spending continue to show a consumer that is doing alright. Meanwhi...