Saturday, October 5, 2019

Weekly Indicators for September 30 - October 4 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . It’s pretty clear that manufacturing is in a recession rig...
Friday, October 4, 2019

September jobs report: excellent in coincident and lagging sectors, cautionary in leading sectors

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 - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES :  +136,000 jobs added (+135,000 ex-Census) U3 unemployment rate declined -0.2% from 3.7% to 3.5% (...
Thursday, October 3, 2019

September 2019 motor vehicle sales

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 - by New Deal democrat Motor vehicle sales are a short leading indicator. In particular, on the consumer side, they have typically rolle...
Wednesday, October 2, 2019

Expect a weak report for the leading jobs sectors on Friday

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 - by New Deal democrat September motor vehicle sales will be reported later today, after the domestic US manufacturers post their number...
Tuesday, October 1, 2019

Once again, two sharply contrasting reports to start the month

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  - by New Deal democrat One month ago, I wrote that the first reports in September, construction spending and the ISM manufacturing ind...
Monday, September 30, 2019

Weekly Indicators for September 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . If you’re wondering why it’s so late, it’s because SA prett...
Friday, September 27, 2019

Personal spending shows consumers OK; durable goods shows producers still struggling

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning’s reports on personal income and spending continue to show a consumer that is doing alright. Meanwhi...
Thursday, September 26, 2019

Initial jobless claims continue near expansion lows

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 - by New Deal democrat I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs ...
Wednesday, September 25, 2019

August new home sales continue rebounding trend

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 - by New Deal democrat Let me start out my look at this morning’s August new home sales report with my typical housing mantra: Inte...
Tuesday, September 24, 2019

The incipient housing choke collar: July prices update

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 - by New Deal democrat Three months ago I first wrote about the concept of a “housing choke collar” constraining economic growth, to wit...
Monday, September 23, 2019

Tame inflation —-> “soft landing”?

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at Seeking Alpha . So long as inflation remains tame, the Fed has scope to bring about a ...
Sunday, September 22, 2019

What Kurt Eichenwald says - Saving the Republic

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  - by New Deal democrat When I’m not reading and writing about the economy, I do occasionally comment elsewhere on political topics.  ...
Saturday, September 21, 2019

Weekly Indicators for September 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . For all of the discussion about various iterations of the t...
Friday, September 20, 2019

A closer look at the housing rebound

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  -by New Deal democrat On Wednesday we got some excellent new residential construction numbers. I went into a lot more detail, showing ...
Thursday, September 19, 2019

Initial claims increasingly foreclose 2019-early 2020 downturn

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 - by New Deal democrat I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs ...
Wednesday, September 18, 2019

Housing: BOOM!

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 - by New Deal democrat Well, this is an easy post. This morning’s report on housing permits and starts showed new expansion highs in bo...
Tuesday, September 17, 2019

Industrial production rebounds; another message of slowdown, no recession

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 - by New Deal democrat Industrial Production is the King of Coincident Indicators.  When industrial production peaks and troughs coinci...
Monday, September 16, 2019

Weekly Indicators for September 9 - 13 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat I realized that I neglected to post a link to this Saturday’s Weekly Indicators post, which was  up at Seeking A...

Last week’s initial jobless claims still show slowdown, no recession

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 - by New Deal democrat A couple of weeks ago, I updated the entire list of short leading indicators.  To cut to the chase, those that w...
Friday, September 13, 2019

August retail sales confirm healthy consumer sector

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 - by New Deal democrat Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms they can tell us so much about the presen...