Saturday, August 24, 2019

Weekly Indicators for August 19 - 23 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . There was marginal deterioration in a number of short lead...
Friday, August 23, 2019

July new home sales disappoint, but improving trend intact

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  - by New Deal democrat New home sales came in this morning at a light 655,000 annualized for July, the second lowest monthly amount thi...
Thursday, August 22, 2019

An extended look at jobless claims, and a note about payrolls

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  - by New Deal democrat Let’s take an extended look at jobless claims, with a side note about payrolls. First,  I have started to mon...
Wednesday, August 21, 2019

Not doomed yet v.2.0: beware recession porn

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  - by New Deal democrat Way back when I first started writing online almost 15 years ago, my very first post on Daily Kos was a litt...
Tuesday, August 20, 2019

What would need to happen next for a producer-led recession

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  -by New Deal democrat If you clicked over and read my last post at Seeking Alpha, I mentioned that I wanted to follow up with examinati...
Monday, August 19, 2019

Why the revised Q2 GDP report next week may be the most important release in 10 years

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 - by New Deal democrat Last Thursday there were major backward revisions to unit labor costs. Since corporate profits deflated by unit ...
Saturday, August 17, 2019

Weekly Indicators for August 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The data continues to be dominated by a steep decline in l...
Friday, August 16, 2019

Positive July housing permits and starts

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 - by New Deal democrat The housing starts and permits report this morning for July adds to the positive data looking forward to H2 2020 ...
Thursday, August 15, 2019

Industrial production, jobless claims, and retail sales

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  - by New Deal democrat As I noted this morning, a slew of important data was released. Let me deal with the “normal” weekly and monthly...

Quick hits on a major Thursday economic news blitz

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 - by New Deal democrat There has been a ton of significant economic news this morning. I’m not going to be able to get to all or even m...
Wednesday, August 14, 2019

A note on the stock and bond markets

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 - by New Deal democrat No economic data releases today, but a little kerfluffle in the markets. First of all, in case you missed it...
Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Real average and aggregate wage growth for July 2019: yellow flag for aggregate wages

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- by New Deal democrat Now that we have the July inflation reading, let’s take a look at real wages. First of all, nominal averag...
Monday, August 12, 2019

My preliminary long leading forecast through midyear 2020

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  - by New Deal democrat This post is  up at Seeking Alpha . This is my first look at economic conditions into next summer. I suspect t...
Saturday, August 10, 2019

Weekly Indicators for August 5 - 9 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Corporate bond yields made another new expansion low, which ...
Friday, August 9, 2019

Q2 Credit conditions were decidedly mixed

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  - by New Deal democrat Credit conditions are one of my categories of long leading indicators. I track the Chicago indexes weekly, but t...
Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Notes on the June JOLTS report: weakness but no imminent downturn

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  - by New Deal democrat I’m still on vacation, so continue to expect light posting. But I thought I’d take a look at the one piece of da...
Monday, August 5, 2019

Scenes from the July employment report

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 - by New Deal democrat First things first: I’m on a vacation for part of this week, so don’t be surprised if there are no postings for a...
Saturday, August 3, 2019

Weekly Indicators for July 29 - August 2 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . That corporate bond yields fell to new expansion lows...
Friday, August 2, 2019

July jobs report: good headline masks signs of serious producer-led slowdown

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 - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES :  +164,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% U6 underemployment rate declined -0....
Thursday, August 1, 2019

July ISM manufacturing, June residential construction both better than expected

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 - by New Deal democrat We got two important leading indicators this morning. Both were better than expected. First, July data start...