Saturday, August 17, 2019

Weekly Indicators for August 12 - 16 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The data continues to be dominated by a steep decline in l...
Friday, August 16, 2019

Positive July housing permits and starts

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 - by New Deal democrat The housing starts and permits report this morning for July adds to the positive data looking forward to H2 2020 ...
Thursday, August 15, 2019

Industrial production, jobless claims, and retail sales

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  - by New Deal democrat As I noted this morning, a slew of important data was released. Let me deal with the “normal” weekly and monthly...

Quick hits on a major Thursday economic news blitz

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 - by New Deal democrat There has been a ton of significant economic news this morning. I’m not going to be able to get to all or even m...
Wednesday, August 14, 2019

A note on the stock and bond markets

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 - by New Deal democrat No economic data releases today, but a little kerfluffle in the markets. First of all, in case you missed it...
Tuesday, August 13, 2019

Real average and aggregate wage growth for July 2019: yellow flag for aggregate wages

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- by New Deal democrat Now that we have the July inflation reading, let’s take a look at real wages. First of all, nominal averag...
Monday, August 12, 2019

My preliminary long leading forecast through midyear 2020

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  - by New Deal democrat This post is  up at Seeking Alpha . This is my first look at economic conditions into next summer. I suspect t...
Saturday, August 10, 2019

Weekly Indicators for August 5 - 9 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Corporate bond yields made another new expansion low, which ...
Friday, August 9, 2019

Q2 Credit conditions were decidedly mixed

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  - by New Deal democrat Credit conditions are one of my categories of long leading indicators. I track the Chicago indexes weekly, but t...
Wednesday, August 7, 2019

Notes on the June JOLTS report: weakness but no imminent downturn

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  - by New Deal democrat I’m still on vacation, so continue to expect light posting. But I thought I’d take a look at the one piece of da...
Monday, August 5, 2019

Scenes from the July employment report

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 - by New Deal democrat First things first: I’m on a vacation for part of this week, so don’t be surprised if there are no postings for a...
Saturday, August 3, 2019

Weekly Indicators for July 29 - August 2 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . That corporate bond yields fell to new expansion lows...
Friday, August 2, 2019

July jobs report: good headline masks signs of serious producer-led slowdown

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 - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES :  +164,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% U6 underemployment rate declined -0....
Thursday, August 1, 2019

July ISM manufacturing, June residential construction both better than expected

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 - by New Deal democrat We got two important leading indicators this morning. Both were better than expected. First, July data start...

Initial claims for July remain lower, thus positive

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 - by New Deal democrat I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are:...
Wednesday, July 31, 2019

The housing choke collar

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at Seeking Alpha , discussing how, even though sales went down last year, and have already ...
Tuesday, July 30, 2019

June 2019 personal income and spending

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 - by New Deal democrat The wage-earner/consumer remains in decent shape, and a lack of inflation (continued low gas prices!) continues t...
Monday, July 29, 2019

Trump’s trade wars can still lead to a producer led recession

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 - by New Deal democrat I wrote a piece last week for Seeking Alpha explaining that, while the consumer side of the economy is doing rea...
Saturday, July 27, 2019

Weekly Indicators for July 22 - 26 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The short leading indicators have been particularly noisy ...
Friday, July 26, 2019

Both long leading components of Q2 GDP declined UPDATED with revisions and further comments

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  - by New Deal democrat The headline number for the first estimate of real GDP in Q2 2019 was 2.1%, as I’m sure you’ve read elsewhere. ...