Saturday, July 27, 2019

Weekly Indicators for July 22 - 26 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The short leading indicators have been particularly noisy ...
Friday, July 26, 2019

Both long leading components of Q2 GDP declined UPDATED with revisions and further comments

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  - by New Deal democrat The headline number for the first estimate of real GDP in Q2 2019 was 2.1%, as I’m sure you’ve read elsewhere. ...
Thursday, July 25, 2019

Initial claims ending July 20: still positive

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 - by New Deal democrat I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are:...
Wednesday, July 24, 2019

Housing has bottomed

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 - by New Deal democrat With the release of new home sales this morning, and existing home sales yesterday, it is increasingly apparent ...
Tuesday, July 23, 2019

My forecast for the rest of 2019 is . . . .

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 - by New Deal democrat . . . up at Seeking Alpha! I’ll be doing my long term forecast through mid year 2020 once Q2 GDP comes out on F...
Sunday, July 21, 2019

How today’s Democratic ‘Squad’ is a direct ideological descendant of the original 1850s Republicans

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 - by New Deal democrat Nothing is ever really “new.” Today’s ‘Squad’ of young Democrats is the direct ideological descendant of the ori...
Saturday, July 20, 2019

Weekly Indicators for July 15 - 19 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . There were a number a changes among the short leading indic...
Friday, July 19, 2019

My updated look at housing sales and construction

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 - by New Deal democrat My midyear 2019 update on housing construction and sales is  up at Seeking Alpha . Among other things, I go th...
Thursday, July 18, 2019

Initial claims still weakly positive, most consistent with slowdown

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 - by New Deal democrat I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are...
Wednesday, July 17, 2019

June residential construction report a decidedly mixed bag

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 - by New Deal democrat The Census Bureau’s report on residential construction for June was a decidedly mixed bag. Here’s their graph of ...
Tuesday, July 16, 2019

June consumption was strong, while production was weak

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  - by New Deal democrat This morning’s retail sales and industrial production releases for June are consistent with my take that the co...
Monday, July 15, 2019

The consumer vs. the producer economy

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 - by New Deal democrat Prof. Edward Leamer wrote over a decade ago that, in a consumer led recession, first housing turns, then vehicle ...
Sunday, July 14, 2019

WARNING: another “debt ceiling debacle” is looming, and could cause nearly immediate recession

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 - by New Deal democrat It’s time to start to get seriously worried about another “debt ceiling debacle.” In 2011, the GOP refused to a...
Saturday, July 13, 2019

Weekly Indicators for July 8 - 12 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Now that the Fed has all but assured a dovish stance going ...
Friday, July 12, 2019

Real average and aggregate wages improved in June

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- by New Deal democrat Now that we have the June inflation reading, let’s finish out our week focusing on the labor market. Firs...
Thursday, July 11, 2019

Initial claims positive to start July, but trend in continuing claims the weakest in 9 years

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 - by New Deal democrat I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are: ...
Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Using long term unemployment claims as confirmation for initial claims

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 - by New Deal democrat In the last few months, I’ve been paying extra attention to the weekly reports of initial jobless claims. Today I...
Tuesday, July 9, 2019

May JOLTS report is weak, consistent with last month’s weak jobs report

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  - by New Deal democrat The jobs report one month ago was poor, so as expected the JOLTS report for May, released this morning, followed...
Monday, July 8, 2019

Scenes from the June employment report

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 - by New Deal democrat As I (and everyone else) wrote on Friday, the establishment portion of the June jobs report was very good. O...
Saturday, July 6, 2019

Weekly Indicators for July 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Lower long term interest rates continue to improve the long r...