Saturday, July 20, 2019

Weekly Indicators for July 15 - 19 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . There were a number a changes among the short leading indic...
Friday, July 19, 2019

My updated look at housing sales and construction

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 - by New Deal democrat My midyear 2019 update on housing construction and sales is  up at Seeking Alpha . Among other things, I go th...
Thursday, July 18, 2019

Initial claims still weakly positive, most consistent with slowdown

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 - by New Deal democrat I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are...
Wednesday, July 17, 2019

June residential construction report a decidedly mixed bag

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 - by New Deal democrat The Census Bureau’s report on residential construction for June was a decidedly mixed bag. Here’s their graph of ...
Tuesday, July 16, 2019

June consumption was strong, while production was weak

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  - by New Deal democrat This morning’s retail sales and industrial production releases for June are consistent with my take that the co...
Monday, July 15, 2019

The consumer vs. the producer economy

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 - by New Deal democrat Prof. Edward Leamer wrote over a decade ago that, in a consumer led recession, first housing turns, then vehicle ...
Sunday, July 14, 2019

WARNING: another “debt ceiling debacle” is looming, and could cause nearly immediate recession

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 - by New Deal democrat It’s time to start to get seriously worried about another “debt ceiling debacle.” In 2011, the GOP refused to a...
Saturday, July 13, 2019

Weekly Indicators for July 8 - 12 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Now that the Fed has all but assured a dovish stance going ...
Friday, July 12, 2019

Real average and aggregate wages improved in June

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- by New Deal democrat Now that we have the June inflation reading, let’s finish out our week focusing on the labor market. Firs...
Thursday, July 11, 2019

Initial claims positive to start July, but trend in continuing claims the weakest in 9 years

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 - by New Deal democrat I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are: ...
Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Using long term unemployment claims as confirmation for initial claims

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 - by New Deal democrat In the last few months, I’ve been paying extra attention to the weekly reports of initial jobless claims. Today I...
Tuesday, July 9, 2019

May JOLTS report is weak, consistent with last month’s weak jobs report

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  - by New Deal democrat The jobs report one month ago was poor, so as expected the JOLTS report for May, released this morning, followed...
Monday, July 8, 2019

Scenes from the June employment report

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 - by New Deal democrat As I (and everyone else) wrote on Friday, the establishment portion of the June jobs report was very good. O...
Saturday, July 6, 2019

Weekly Indicators for July 1 - 5 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Lower long term interest rates continue to improve the long r...
Friday, July 5, 2019

June jobs report: excellent establishment survey, mediocre household survey

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 - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES :  +224,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate rose 0.1% from 3.6% to 3.7% U6 underemployment rate ro...
Wednesday, July 3, 2019

Initial claims on the cusp of turning neutral; expect a middling June jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are...
Tuesday, July 2, 2019

In which I nitpick Prof. Jared Bernstein about a consumer “economic tailwind”

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 - by New Deal democrat Last Friday, following the release of May’s personal income and spending report, Prof. Jared Bernstein, whom I ...
Monday, July 1, 2019

As we start the second half of 2019 . . . (Updated: manufacturing almost exactly flat in June)

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  - by New Deal democrat First of all, I forgot to post a link to my  post at Seeking Alpha  on how a near-term recession is not likely t...