Friday, June 21, 2019

Initial jobless claims still weakly positive

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 - by New Deal democrat I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds are: ...
Thursday, June 20, 2019

Regional Fed indexes confirm that manufacturing is flat

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 - by New Deal democrat [A reminder: this week I’m on vacation, so light posting is the rule.] Earlier this week the Empire State Manu...
Wednesday, June 19, 2019

Trucking suggests transport slowing, but has not rolled over

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 - by New Deal democrat I have been paying particular attention to the monthly report of the American Trucking Association , to compare i...
Tuesday, June 18, 2019

May housing permits and starts consistent with rising trend off bottom, but suggest layoffs to come

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 - by New Deal democrat Although the headlines in the May report for building permits and starts were “meh,” the internals suggest that t...
Monday, June 17, 2019

Empire State Manufacturing: OUCH!

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 - by New Deal democrat I’m on vacation this week, so fair warning that there is probably going to be light posting! The only economic ...
Saturday, June 15, 2019

Weekly Indicators for June 10 - 14 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The divergence between the near term vs. longer term forec...
Friday, June 14, 2019

May real retail sales positive, but industrial production remains in a shallow recession

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  - by New Deal democrat Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms they can tell us so much about the prese...
Thursday, June 13, 2019

Initial jobless claims for week ending June 10 - no concern yet

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 - by New Deal democrat I have started to monitor initial jobless claims to see if there are any signs of stress. My two thresholds ar...
Wednesday, June 12, 2019

May real wages grow, but real aggregate payrolls on the verge of a red flag warning

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 -  by New Deal democrat The consumer price index rose +0.1% in May and declined YoY to 1.8%. Again the main reason was gas prices, whic...
Tuesday, June 11, 2019

April JOLTS report: a mixed bag consistent with the strong jobs report one month ago

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 - by New Deal democrat The jobs report one month ago was a blowout to the upside, so I expected the JOLTS report for April, reported yes...