Wednesday, June 5, 2019

The slowdown cometh UPDATED with link

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 - by New Deal democrat I submitted a long post on the above to Seeking Alpha. They haven’t put it up yet. When they do, I’ll link to it ...
Tuesday, June 4, 2019

If your forecast relies solely upon housing, here is your problem

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  - by New Deal democrat Back in 2006, Prof. Edward Leamer of UCLA made a splash with his paper, “Housing IS the Business Cycle,” deliver...
Monday, June 3, 2019

ISM manufacturing and residential construction spending trends continue

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 - by New Deal democrat May data has started out where April left off, with continuations of trends in both manufacturing and constructio...

The sources of the next recession

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  - by New Deal democrat While we are waiting for the ISM May manufacturing survey and construction spending data to be released later th...
Saturday, June 1, 2019

Weekly Indicators for May 27 - 31 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . There was a touch of weakening across several timeframes. ...
Friday, May 31, 2019

Q1 corporate profits and real gross domestic income

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- by New Deal democrat Yesterday the second estimate of Q1 GDP came out, which means that corporate profits for Q1 were finally reported...
Thursday, May 30, 2019

Initial jobless claims: still positive, but extra watchfulness justified

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 - by New Deal democrat Late last year, as initial jobless claims were rising off their September lows, I did some parsing of levels t...
Wednesday, May 29, 2019

Resolving the contradiction between the yield curve and housing

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 - by New Deal democrat If you listen to the yield curve, it is screaming “recession!”  If you listen to new home sales, they are saying ...
Tuesday, May 28, 2019

Trucking tops ailing rail (nerdy)

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 - by New Deal democrat Since the beginning of this year, weekly rail volumes have usually been negative.  The full year to date volumes...
Monday, May 27, 2019

Memorial Day 2019: let the enemy dead rest in peace

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 - by New Deal democrat Memorial Day was established as the day for both sides of the American Civil War to honor their dead. Today ther...
Sunday, May 26, 2019

The Western Hemisphere’s portion of the Arctic looks set for a record low

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  - by New Deal democrat Given Donald Trump’s view that global warming is a hoax, I am surprised that almost 2 1/2 years into his Preside...
Saturday, May 25, 2019

Weekly Indicators for May 20 - 24 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The big contradiction between what the yield curve is fore...
Friday, May 24, 2019

Economic indicator death match update: either bonds or housing sales are giving a false signal

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  - by New Deal democrat Yesterday featured the week’s sole important economic release: new home sales. But first, let’s update the inver...
Thursday, May 23, 2019

Initial claims, temporary staffing point to weaker May jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat As I’ve noted a few times recently, I’m paying additional attention to the weekly jobless claims numbers, partly ...
Wednesday, May 22, 2019

A comment about the economy and the 2020 election

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 - by New Deal democrat Recently I’ve seen a bunch of takes to the effect that “the economy is doing great, and therefore it is likely t...

San Francisco Fed: ease of finding a new job is driving improved labor force participation

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  - by New Deal democrat This is a surprising result that is worth noting: the San Francisco Fed found that the increase in prime age lab...
Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Yes, Virginia, the government shutdown really did cause a mini-recession

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 - by New Deal democrat For the past several months, I have been pounding on the idea that the government shutdown, during which 800,000 ...
Monday, May 20, 2019

Twelve Big Picture bullet points on the economy

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 - by New Deal democrat It’s a really slow week for economic data. Really the only important report is new home sales, which will be rele...
Sunday, May 19, 2019

Nancy Pelosi is an able tactician, but a poor strategist. She will not save the Republic

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 - by New Deal democrat A couple of years ago I read Andrew Roberts’ tome on Napoleon. As a schoolboy, Napoleon voraciously inhaled ever...
Saturday, May 18, 2019

Weekly Indicators for May 13 - 17 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The stock market’s “tariff tantrum” is driving down interes...