Saturday, May 25, 2019

Weekly Indicators for May 20 - 24 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The big contradiction between what the yield curve is fore...
Friday, May 24, 2019

Economic indicator death match update: either bonds or housing sales are giving a false signal

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  - by New Deal democrat Yesterday featured the week’s sole important economic release: new home sales. But first, let’s update the inver...
Thursday, May 23, 2019

Initial claims, temporary staffing point to weaker May jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat As I’ve noted a few times recently, I’m paying additional attention to the weekly jobless claims numbers, partly ...
Wednesday, May 22, 2019

A comment about the economy and the 2020 election

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 - by New Deal democrat Recently I’ve seen a bunch of takes to the effect that “the economy is doing great, and therefore it is likely t...

San Francisco Fed: ease of finding a new job is driving improved labor force participation

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  - by New Deal democrat This is a surprising result that is worth noting: the San Francisco Fed found that the increase in prime age lab...
Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Yes, Virginia, the government shutdown really did cause a mini-recession

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 - by New Deal democrat For the past several months, I have been pounding on the idea that the government shutdown, during which 800,000 ...
Monday, May 20, 2019

Twelve Big Picture bullet points on the economy

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 - by New Deal democrat It’s a really slow week for economic data. Really the only important report is new home sales, which will be rele...
Sunday, May 19, 2019

Nancy Pelosi is an able tactician, but a poor strategist. She will not save the Republic

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 - by New Deal democrat A couple of years ago I read Andrew Roberts’ tome on Napoleon. As a schoolboy, Napoleon voraciously inhaled ever...
Saturday, May 18, 2019

Weekly Indicators for May 13 - 17 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The stock market’s “tariff tantrum” is driving down interes...
Friday, May 17, 2019

Initial jobless claims lead the unemployment rate: May 2019 update

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 - by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at a relationship I haven’t updated in awhile: initial jobless claims vs. the unemployment rat...
Thursday, May 16, 2019

April housing permits and starts: not nearly so rosy under the headlines

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  - by New Deal democrat The headlines in this morning’s residential construction report were certainly positive:  permits increased by 0...
Wednesday, May 15, 2019

April real retail sales turn negative, with both short and longer term implications

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  - by New Deal democrat Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms they can tell us so much about the present...
Tuesday, May 14, 2019

Consumer credit: both producer and consumer sides of the ledger show mortgage market OK, increasing stress for other loans

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 - by New Deal democrat The New York Fed reported on household debt and credit this morning. The good news is that there has been no in...
Monday, May 13, 2019

We are probably close (~500,000) to “full employment”

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 - by New Deal democrat From time to time over the past few years I have tried to estimate how far we were from “full employment,” by wh...
Saturday, May 11, 2019

Weekly Indicators for May 6 - 10 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . There was a classic “flight to quality” in long term bonds...
Friday, May 10, 2019

Gas prices fail to ignite overall inflation in April, but real wages flat so far for 2019

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 - by New Deal democrat The consumer price index rose +0.3% in April, just as in March mainly as a result of a big monthly increase in ...
Thursday, May 9, 2019

Are initial jobless claims showing a re-assertion of an underlying weak economic trend?

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 - by New Deal democrat I don’t normally comment on initial jobless claims, but I’m following them with particular interest at this poi...
Wednesday, May 8, 2019

Economic indicator death match! The yield curve vs. mortgage rates

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  - by New Deal democrat This morning the 10 year vs. 3 month interest rate spread inverted again: With the exception of the 30 year...