Saturday, April 27, 2019

Weekly Indicators for April 22 - 26 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha .  The data has been improving since the beginning of Marc...
Friday, April 26, 2019

Both leading components of GDP declined

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 - by New Deal democrat While overall GDP increased at a 3.2% annualized rate in the first quarter, personal consumption expenditures in...
Thursday, April 25, 2019

How increasing local oligopolization has distorted the housing market

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 - by New Deal democrat Earlier this week new home sales for March were reported, soaring to a new expansion high bar one month (November...
Wednesday, April 24, 2019

Commercial and industrial loans: another sign of a slowdown?

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 - by New Deal democrat There are lots of cross-currents in the economy right now. At the absolute tip of the spear is the decline in int...
Tuesday, April 23, 2019

New home sales suggest housing bottom is in

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- by New Deal democrat New home sales are extremely volatile, and extremely revised, but they do have the advantage of probably being the...
Monday, April 22, 2019

When will residential construction employment start to decline?

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 - by New Deal democrat Because the long leading indicators turned down in 2018, over the last few months, I have repeatedly looked at ...
Sunday, April 21, 2019

Nailed it!

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 - by New Deal democrat Three weeks ago I wrote  No, the Meuller report ***DID NOT*** “find no collusion!”   in which I lambasted and pa...
Saturday, April 20, 2019

Weekly Indicators for April 15 - 19 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up  at Seeking Alpha . The data has been very mixed in the past few weeks. Either ...
Friday, April 19, 2019

Sales rebound from government shutdown-induced “mini-recession;” March housing lays an egg

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 - by New Deal democrat While March retail sales rose strongly, total business sales for February - also released yesterday - which incl...
Thursday, April 18, 2019

March real retail sales very strong, but no “all clear” yet

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  - by New Deal democrat This morning’s retail sales report for March was very strong on both a nominal basis, up +1.6%, and also on a re...
Wednesday, April 17, 2019

YoY Industrial production and structural changes to the US economy since 1980

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 - by New Deal democrat No big economic releases today, so let me follow up further with a few long-term comments on industrial producti...
Tuesday, April 16, 2019

Industrial production continues to decelerate

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 - by New Deal democrat Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators. In dating the onset and end of recessions, in pract...
Monday, April 15, 2019

The three best arguments against an economic slowdown

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 - by New Deal democrat I still think I’m right that there will be a worsening economic slowdown that shows up by about summertime and c...

And now, watch me tap dance!

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 - by New Deal democrat So I was going to post a piece on “why I could be wrong” here this morning. But then, because it is strictly abo...
Saturday, April 13, 2019

Weekly Indicators for April 8 - 12 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Lower interest rates have to some extent been offset by wea...
Friday, April 12, 2019

The economy in 2019: a look at the “big picture”

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 - by New Deal democrat Although I have a bunch of nerdy forecasting models, I view my primary mission as trying to explain what is goin...
Thursday, April 11, 2019

February JOLTS: a mirror of the poor jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat The JOLTS report on labor is noteworthy and helpful because it breaks down the jobs market into a more granular...
Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Real wages got gassed in March

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 - by New Deal democrat The consumer price index rose +0.4% in March, mainly as a result of a big monthly increase in gas prices. That ...
Tuesday, April 9, 2019

Downturn in manufacturing new orders adds to evidence of slowdown

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 - by New Deal democrat I don’t normally pay much attention to the new factory orders report, because it is simply too noisy to be of muc...
Monday, April 8, 2019

I told you so: the March employment report showed a slowdown in the leading sectors

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 - by New Deal democrat For the past few months, I have been forecasting a jobs slowdown. That has been based in part on the natural pro...