Saturday, March 16, 2019

Weekly Indicators for March 11 - 15 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . The rebound after the government shutdown has lifted the now...
Friday, March 15, 2019

Industrial production weak, while JOLTS employment remains strong

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 - by New Deal democrat I’ll have more to say next week, but for now here are the headlines on this morning’s data. Taken together, ...

Initial jobless claims not at warning levels yet

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 - by New Deal democrat With the economy slowing so markedly, suddenly there is a lot I can post about! So here is a quick note abou...
Thursday, March 14, 2019

Leading scenes from the February jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat Let me catch up with some details from last Friday’s employment report. As a preliminary matter, the overwhel...
Wednesday, March 13, 2019

More evidence for a Q4 “Recession Watch”

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 - by New Deal democrat About a month ago, based on those Q4 2018 reports that had not been delayed by the government shutdown, plus wor...
Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Real wage growth continued to improve in February

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 - by New Deal democrat.      Now that we have February’s CPI (up +0.2%), let’s update nominal and real wage growth. First, here is ...
Monday, March 11, 2019

Negative Nov. and Dec. revisions overwhelm positive January retail sales

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 - by New Deal democrat The initial spin on this morning’s delayed retail sales report for January has been positive, with for example ...
Sunday, March 10, 2019

A modest proposal to use FICA-style tax withholding as a transition to “Medicare for All”

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 - by New Deal democrat Probably the foremost reform advanced by the Democratic Party at present is “Medicare for All.” Personally I don...
Saturday, March 9, 2019

Weekly Indicators for March 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The distortions caused by the government shutdown appear t...
Friday, March 8, 2019

February jobs report: the first sign of the economic slowdown spreading to jobs?

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 - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +20,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate -0.2% from 4.0% to 3.8% U6 underemployment rate  -0.8% f...
Thursday, March 7, 2019

Two more leading sectors to watch for in tomorrow’s jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I updated my look at temporary jobs, a known leading indicator for jobs overall.  Today I want to look ...
Wednesday, March 6, 2019

This Friday, watch out for an outright decline in temporary employment

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 - by New Deal democrat Almost a month ago I flagged the decelerating staffing inde x, and showed how it corresponded with the leading se...
Tuesday, March 5, 2019

February services index strong; new home sales in line with bottoming scenario

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  - by New Deal democrat Just a quick note on this morning’s economic data. First, new home sales improved in December from October a...
Monday, March 4, 2019

Residential construction declines in December, but looks to be bottoming

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  - by New Deal democrat Residential construction spending lags sales, permits, and starts. But it still leads the economy overall, and i...

December housing summary at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat I haven’t done a comprehensive update on housing in a few months, in large part because of the lapse in data duri...
Sunday, March 3, 2019

Climate change is the detonation of the Population Bomb

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 - by New Deal democrat You know the drill ... it’s Sunday so I speak my mind on things non-economic..... Way back in the days of the ...
Saturday, March 2, 2019

Weekly Indicators for February 25 - March 1 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Last year the most significant developments were in the lon...
Friday, March 1, 2019

Manufacturing holds on in February

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  - by New Deal democrat The theme for most reports remains that the government shutdown in December and January, plus a 30 year record ...
Thursday, February 28, 2019

Initial claims not at cautionary levels yet

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 - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims are an important short leading indicator, typically turning up 3-9 months before a reces...