Saturday, March 9, 2019

Weekly Indicators for March 4 - 8 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The distortions caused by the government shutdown appear t...
Friday, March 8, 2019

February jobs report: the first sign of the economic slowdown spreading to jobs?

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 - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +20,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate -0.2% from 4.0% to 3.8% U6 underemployment rate  -0.8% f...
Thursday, March 7, 2019

Two more leading sectors to watch for in tomorrow’s jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I updated my look at temporary jobs, a known leading indicator for jobs overall.  Today I want to look ...
Wednesday, March 6, 2019

This Friday, watch out for an outright decline in temporary employment

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 - by New Deal democrat Almost a month ago I flagged the decelerating staffing inde x, and showed how it corresponded with the leading se...
Tuesday, March 5, 2019

February services index strong; new home sales in line with bottoming scenario

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  - by New Deal democrat Just a quick note on this morning’s economic data. First, new home sales improved in December from October a...
Monday, March 4, 2019

Residential construction declines in December, but looks to be bottoming

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  - by New Deal democrat Residential construction spending lags sales, permits, and starts. But it still leads the economy overall, and i...

December housing summary at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat I haven’t done a comprehensive update on housing in a few months, in large part because of the lapse in data duri...
Sunday, March 3, 2019

Climate change is the detonation of the Population Bomb

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 - by New Deal democrat You know the drill ... it’s Sunday so I speak my mind on things non-economic..... Way back in the days of the ...
Saturday, March 2, 2019

Weekly Indicators for February 25 - March 1 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Last year the most significant developments were in the lon...
Friday, March 1, 2019

Manufacturing holds on in February

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  - by New Deal democrat The theme for most reports remains that the government shutdown in December and January, plus a 30 year record ...
Thursday, February 28, 2019

Initial claims not at cautionary levels yet

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 - by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims are an important short leading indicator, typically turning up 3-9 months before a reces...

Q4 GDP: mixed signals for the future (UPDATED with graphs)

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  - by New Deal democrat I didn’t post anything yesterday, so I’ll make up for it with two posts today. This morning we finally got the...
Tuesday, February 26, 2019

December housing permits and starts mixed, support slowdown scenario

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning we finally got December housing permits and starts. Remember that starts are more volatile than per...
Monday, February 25, 2019

At last! Missing long leading metrics and manufacturing in the spotlight this week

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 - by New Deal democrat This week manufacturing and some important data long delayed by the government shutdown will be in the spotlight...
Saturday, February 23, 2019

Weekly Indicators for February 18 - 22 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The short leading indicators have sunk to a level that is ...
Friday, February 22, 2019

Housing may bottom this spring

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 - by New Deal democrat Despite yesterday’s poor existing home sales report, which was the worst in over three years, the bottom in housi...
Thursday, February 21, 2019

Industrial transportation stalls out

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  - by New Deal democrat The two main forms of transporting goods, rail and trucking, have both gone negative YoY, and on average over th...
Wednesday, February 20, 2019

100 years of industrial production

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  - by New Deal democrat This is a post that can literally be written only once in 100 years! Because as of last Friday, it has been e...
Tuesday, February 19, 2019

Wages continued to improve through January

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 - by New Deal democrat One item I didn’t get around to in the last couple of weeks is how wages performed as of January’s jobs report. ...
Monday, February 18, 2019

It’s Presidents Day, and we’re still basically flying blind on the eoncomy

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 - by New Deal democrat Not only are the markets closed today for President’s Day, but this entire week is about the emptiest I can ever...