The Bonddad Blog

Still nerdy after all these years

Saturday, November 10, 2018

Weekly Indicators for November 5 - 9 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Interest rattes rose even further this past week, portend f...
Friday, November 9, 2018

Big producer price increase in October - if a trend - is a problem

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  - by New Deal democrat In a light data week, this morning's report on producer prices is certainly worth mentioning.  As you may h...
Thursday, November 8, 2018

Setting markers for a 2019 slowdown in the jobs market

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- by New Deal democrat How might a slowdown (not a recession, but a decline in growth to the 1%-2% YoY range in GDP) that I've b...
Wednesday, November 7, 2018

Final thoughts on the 2018 midterms

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 - by New Deal democrat Here are six takeaways from last night's results: 1. It *was* a wave election in the popular vote, but i...
Tuesday, November 6, 2018

Live-blogging the 2018 Democratic ripple? Wave? Tsunami?

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 - by New Deal democrat I'm close to calling it a night, maybe one more post.  The summary is that there was no blue wave, just enoug...
Monday, November 5, 2018

Trump's final pre-midterm job approval

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 - by New Deal democrat As promised, following up on yesterday's post, here is Gallup's final Trump job approval rating, as of th...
Sunday, November 4, 2018

As predicted, a deeply unpopular Trump stomped on the GOP message; early races I'll be watching Tuesday night

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 - by New Deal democrat As I wrote a few weeks ago, whatever message Congressional GOPers might have wanted to put out (like, "our ...
Saturday, November 3, 2018

Weekly Indicators for October 29 - November 2 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators piece is  up at Seeking Alpha . Several areas, like rail traffic, saw significant rebounds...
Friday, November 2, 2018

October jobs report: probably the best report of the entire expansion

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 - by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +250,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.7% U6 underemployment rate declined -0.1...
Thursday, November 1, 2018

ISM new orders posts lowest reading in nearly 2 years

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 - by New Deal democrat The ISM reported this morning that The October PMI ®  registered 57.7 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage ...
Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Some good news on workers' wages

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  - by New Deal democrat There was some good news this morning about workers wages. The quarterly employment cost index showed a q/q incr...

Housing has peaked*

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*(unless the Fed lowers interest rates) - by New Deal democra t My comprehensive look at September housing data is  up at Seeking Alpha...
Tuesday, October 30, 2018

The Housing Affordability Crisis

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning both the Case-Shiller House Price Indexes for September, and Third Quarter Median Asking Rent were r...
Monday, October 29, 2018

Setting a baseline for a manufacturing slowdown

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 - by New Deal democrat If I am right that by roughly midyear 2019 the economy will experience a substantial slowdown, then we ought to s...
Saturday, October 27, 2018

Weekly Indicators for October 22 - 26 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Weakness, which had been confined to the long leading indic...
Friday, October 26, 2018

A note on Q3 GDP UPDATED with link to Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat I submitted my piece on Q3 GDP to Seeking Alpha at about 9"30 this morning. As of now, they have not posted ...
Thursday, October 25, 2018

When the stock market headlines the political blogs . . .

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 - by New Deal democrat Here is a graph I saw on Digby's blog this morning : There was also a highly-recommended, heavil...
Wednesday, October 24, 2018

New home sales bombed in September

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 - by New Deal democrat Needless to say, this morning's report on new home sales was another big miss in the housing sector. Not onl...

Q3 2018 update: "Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator"

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 - by New Deal democrat One of the methods I incorporate into my long leading indicators is the "Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator...
Tuesday, October 23, 2018

An update on yield curve dynamics

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 - by New Deal democrat So I submitted this wonderful piece to Seeking Alpha yesterday morning, and figured I would just link to it toda...
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