Saturday, September 29, 2018

Weekly Indicators for September 24 - 28 at Seeking Alpha

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 -by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . No surprise that the Fed rate hike took center stage this we...
Friday, September 28, 2018

Housing: comprehensive review of August reports

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 - by New Deal democrat I pay particular attention to housing because it is ian important long leading indicator for the economy. And m...
Thursday, September 27, 2018

Contracts for existing homes declined in August for the fourth time in the last five months

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  - by New Deal democrat This is something that I don't normally bother to cover, because it deals with existing homes, but since Bil...
Wednesday, September 26, 2018

New home sales show further signs of rolling over

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 - by New Deal democrat New home sales, despite a month over month increase, continued their slowdown in August. Here's the graph su...
Tuesday, September 25, 2018

How close are we to full employment? September update

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 -  by New Deal democrat A couple of months ago, I estimated that we were about 0.8% away from "full employment." Theoreticall...
Monday, September 24, 2018

The *rate* of new jobless claims, at all-time lows, forecasts even lower unemployment

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 - by New Deal democrat It's a slow news week, so I thought I'd start out with something I haven't looked at in awhile: ini...
Saturday, September 22, 2018

Weekly Indicators for September 17 - 21 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  Up at Seeking Alpha. A number of indicators that have been on the cusp of change...
Friday, September 21, 2018

A bold forecast: there will be no autumn surge in housing this year

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 -  by New Deal democrat The big issue this year in housing is whether increased mortgage rates and higher prices have merely resulted ...
Thursday, September 20, 2018

Housing has at very least plateaued

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 - by New Deal democrat First of all, my extended take on yesterday's report on August housing permits and starts, "The most im...
Wednesday, September 19, 2018

Housing: a big miss in permits with important ramifications

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 -  by New Deal democrat NOTE: I'll have a more comprehensive report up at Seeking Alpha later, and will link to it once it is posted....
Tuesday, September 18, 2018

A hypothesis for Prof. Krugman: the transmission method was FEAR

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 - by New Deal democrat In his recent column disagreeing with Ben Bernanke, Paul Krugman asks for an explanation as to how a financial p...
Monday, September 17, 2018

A detailed look at Industrial Production during this expansion

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 - by New Deal democrat In the past week there's been a little highbrow relitigation of the drivers of the "Great Recession...
Saturday, September 15, 2018

Weekly Indicators for September 10 -14 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . An anomalous surge in demand deposits led to one of the 5 ...
Friday, September 14, 2018

Subdued inflation helps gains in real average and aggregate wages

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 - by New Deal democrat  With the consumer price report yesterday morning, let's conclude this weeklong focus on jobs and wages b...
Thursday, September 13, 2018

August JOLTS report: thriving jobs market, and still-thriving Taboo against raising wages

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- by New Deal democrat Tuesday's JOLTS report once again confirmed the very good employment report from one month ago: Quits made...
Wednesday, September 12, 2018

Real median household income rose 1.8% in 2017; poeverty rate declined

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  - by New Deal democrat The Census Bureau reported this morning that *real* median household earnings rose 1.8% in 2017.  Here's th...
Tuesday, September 11, 2018

Decelerating trends in 5 long leading indicators

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 - by New Deal democrat I have a new post  up at Seeking Alpha , "Five Long Leading Indicators 'On the Cusp'." The p...

The Taboo against raising wages is still thriving among small businesses

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 - by New Deal democrat The National Federation of Independent Businesses (NFIB) put out its monthly confidence and hiring reports over...
Monday, September 10, 2018

Scenes from the August jobs report

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 - by New Deal democrat 1. The strong trend of people entering the jobs market and getting jobs remains intact Here's a nice gra...
Saturday, September 8, 2018

Weekly indicators for September 3 - 7 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . We have 4 long leading indicators fluctuating around the po...