Saturday, August 11, 2018

Weekly Indicators for August 6 - 10 at Seeking Alpha

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . Two long leading indicators are within 1% of turning negat...
Friday, August 10, 2018

Real wages decline YoY, while real aggregate payrolls grow

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 - by New Deal democrat With the consumer price report this morning, let's conclude this weeklong focus on jobs and wages by upd...
Thursday, August 9, 2018

Four measures of wages all show renewed stagnation

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 - by New Deal democrat This is something I haven't looked at in awhile. Since 2013,  I have documented the stagnation vs. growth in a...
Wednesday, August 8, 2018

June 2018 JOLTS report evidence of both excellent jobs market and taboo against raising wages

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 -  by New Deal democrat Yesterday's JOLTS report remained excellent, suffering only in comparison to last month: Hires were just be...
Tuesday, August 7, 2018

Gimme credit for Q2 2018: conditions looser, demand improves, but acaution flag for housing

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  - by New Deal democrat The Fed released its quarterly Senior Loan Officer Survey on credit yesterday. This is one of my long leading...
Monday, August 6, 2018

How close are we to "full employment"?

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 - by New Deal democrat As I pointed out Friday, there was a lot of good news underneath the headline jobs gain -- primarily in labor fo...
Saturday, August 4, 2018

Weekly Indicators for July 30 - August 3 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The old vaudeville sketch comes to mind: "Niagara Falls....
Friday, August 3, 2018

July jobs report: booming jobs market, and a surge in participation continues to depress wage growth

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 -  by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +157,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate down -0.1% from 4.0% to 3.9% U6 underemployment rate...
Thursday, August 2, 2018

Early August data potpourri-palooza!

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  - by New Deal democrat As promised, here is a pithy rundown on the monthly data for July that was released earlier this week. As usual...
Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Midyear update: long leading forecast through H1 2019 at Seeking Alpha

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 - b y New Deal democrat My midyear update of the 8 long leading indicators, taking the forecast all the way through the middle of next y...
Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Mortgage rates probably have to top 5% to tip housing into a recession-leading downturn

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 - by New Deal democrat I've pointed out many times that, generally speaking, mortgage rates lead home sales. It's not the only ...
Monday, July 30, 2018

Commercial bond yield inversions and recessions

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 - by New Deal democrat When my article on the yield curve was posted at Seeking Alpha last week, I got feedback that I ought to look at...
Saturday, July 28, 2018

Weekly Indicators for July 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . After the article was published, I noticed a couple of er...
Friday, July 27, 2018

Q2 GDP: likely as good as it is going to get this year

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 - by New Deal democrat [Note: FRED hasn't gotten around to updating the GDP data. I'll update this post once the graphs are ...
Thursday, July 26, 2018

Why a yield curve inversion is not a necessary precursor to a recession

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  - by New Deal democrat For the last decade I have made a specialty of observing "long leading indicators" -- those metric...