Saturday, August 4, 2018

Weekly Indicators for July 30 - August 3 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The old vaudeville sketch comes to mind: "Niagara Falls....
Friday, August 3, 2018

July jobs report: booming jobs market, and a surge in participation continues to depress wage growth

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 -  by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +157,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate down -0.1% from 4.0% to 3.9% U6 underemployment rate...
Thursday, August 2, 2018

Early August data potpourri-palooza!

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  - by New Deal democrat As promised, here is a pithy rundown on the monthly data for July that was released earlier this week. As usual...
Wednesday, August 1, 2018

Midyear update: long leading forecast through H1 2019 at Seeking Alpha

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 - b y New Deal democrat My midyear update of the 8 long leading indicators, taking the forecast all the way through the middle of next y...
Tuesday, July 31, 2018

Mortgage rates probably have to top 5% to tip housing into a recession-leading downturn

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 - by New Deal democrat I've pointed out many times that, generally speaking, mortgage rates lead home sales. It's not the only ...
Monday, July 30, 2018

Commercial bond yield inversions and recessions

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 - by New Deal democrat When my article on the yield curve was posted at Seeking Alpha last week, I got feedback that I ought to look at...
Saturday, July 28, 2018

Weekly Indicators for July 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . After the article was published, I noticed a couple of er...
Friday, July 27, 2018

Q2 GDP: likely as good as it is going to get this year

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 - by New Deal democrat [Note: FRED hasn't gotten around to updating the GDP data. I'll update this post once the graphs are ...
Thursday, July 26, 2018

Why a yield curve inversion is not a necessary precursor to a recession

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  - by New Deal democrat For the last decade I have made a specialty of observing "long leading indicators" -- those metric...
Wednesday, July 25, 2018

A blockbuster new home sales report confirms that housing has turned flat this year

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 - by New Deal democrat   This morning's new home sales report was the kind of stunning reversal which shows why I do not follow it n...
Tuesday, July 24, 2018

The "real" Fed funds rate and recessions

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 - by New Deal democrat I've seen several posts recently that might be summarized as "don't worry, be happy" becau...
Monday, July 23, 2018

A tantalizing question about existing home sales: have they peaked?

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 - by New Deal democrat I normally don't pay that much attention to existing home sales, even though they are about 90% of the overa...
Sunday, July 22, 2018

The President of the United States is a Russian asset

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 - by New Deal democrat That the President of the United States is a Russian asset needs to be openly acknowledged. He may be a naive, n...

Weekly Indicators For July 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat UPDATE: the article has now been published, and you can find it  Here . I get paid per view, so, you know, go f...
Friday, July 20, 2018

The US is not in an economic Boom: midyear udpate

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 - by New Deal democrat At the beginning of this year I asked: Is the US economy going to enter a Boom in 2018? To recap, there is n...