Saturday, July 28, 2018

Weekly Indicators for July 23 - 27 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha . After the article was published, I noticed a couple of er...
Friday, July 27, 2018

Q2 GDP: likely as good as it is going to get this year

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 - by New Deal democrat [Note: FRED hasn't gotten around to updating the GDP data. I'll update this post once the graphs are ...
Thursday, July 26, 2018

Why a yield curve inversion is not a necessary precursor to a recession

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  - by New Deal democrat For the last decade I have made a specialty of observing "long leading indicators" -- those metric...
Wednesday, July 25, 2018

A blockbuster new home sales report confirms that housing has turned flat this year

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 - by New Deal democrat   This morning's new home sales report was the kind of stunning reversal which shows why I do not follow it n...
Tuesday, July 24, 2018

The "real" Fed funds rate and recessions

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 - by New Deal democrat I've seen several posts recently that might be summarized as "don't worry, be happy" becau...
Monday, July 23, 2018

A tantalizing question about existing home sales: have they peaked?

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 - by New Deal democrat I normally don't pay that much attention to existing home sales, even though they are about 90% of the overa...
Sunday, July 22, 2018

The President of the United States is a Russian asset

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 - by New Deal democrat That the President of the United States is a Russian asset needs to be openly acknowledged. He may be a naive, n...

Weekly Indicators For July 16 - 20 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat UPDATE: the article has now been published, and you can find it  Here . I get paid per view, so, you know, go f...
Friday, July 20, 2018

The US is not in an economic Boom: midyear udpate

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 - by New Deal democrat At the beginning of this year I asked: Is the US economy going to enter a Boom in 2018? To recap, there is n...
Thursday, July 19, 2018

US layoff rate at all time lows

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 - by New Deal democrat I don't write about new jobless claims much anymore, mainly because it has been boringly good for a few year...
Wednesday, July 18, 2018

Disappointing housing permits and starts point to housing, GDP slowdown

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 -   by New Deal democrat For the second month in a row, the preponderance of evidence from housing permits and starts is that increa...
Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Real retail sales and industrial production update

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 - by New Deal democrat I'm having a hardware issue, so this will be a quick hit. Hopefully sometime tomorrow everything will be...
Saturday, July 14, 2018

Weekly Indicators for July 9 - 13 at Seeking Alpha

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at Seeking Alpha . The biggest story continues to be what is happening with t...
Friday, July 13, 2018

Real average and aggregate wages: July 2018 update

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 - by New Deal democrat As we close out this week devoted to jobs and wages, with the consumer price index having been reported yesterd...
Thursday, July 12, 2018

A (mainly) business cycle explanation for this year's better jobs growth

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 - by New Deal democrat The pace of job creation declined from averaging over 200,000 a month between Q2 2014 through Q2 2015 to 180,00...
Wednesday, July 11, 2018

May JOLTS report: as good as could be asked for

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 - by New Deal democrat The simple take on yesterday's JOLTS report for May is that it was excellent: Hires made a new high Quit...