Saturday, May 26, 2018

Weekly Indicators for May 21 - 25 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The primary movers -- in differing directions -- were interest ra...
Friday, May 25, 2018

$3 a gallon gas has returned!

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 - by New Deal democrat According to GasBuddy , as of this morning the average price of gas in the US is $3 a gallon: This...
Thursday, May 24, 2018

Housing market shows no sign of stalling out yet

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  - by New Deal democrat Now that all of the major reports are in, I take an extended look at the state of the housing sector. This pos...
Wednesday, May 23, 2018

The two most positive measures for housing remain undaunted

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 - by New Deal democrat We won't have a more complete picture of the housing market this month until tomorrow's release of exist...
Tuesday, May 22, 2018

Dear Professor Krugman, Say Its Name!!! "Taboo"

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 - by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman is coming closer to embracing my "taboo" argument. A month ago I wrote that raising ...
Monday, May 21, 2018

Real retail sales update for April 2018

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 - by New Deal democrat It's a slow start of the week, so let's catch up on one of my favorite indicators, real retail sales, whi...
Saturday, May 19, 2018

Weekly Indicators for May 14 - 18 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The very last thing I do, only after I tabulate all the data, is ...
Friday, May 18, 2018

The percentage of employees who don't get wage raises; is the Taboo undergoing an "extinction burst"?

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  - by New Deal democrat I came across the below graph yesterday from the Kansas City Fed. It's pretty shocking: It rep...
Thursday, May 17, 2018

Interest rate and gas price watch

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 - by New Deal democrat For nearly a decade, this "little expansion that could" has dodged a lot of bullets. But I suspect tha...
Wednesday, May 16, 2018

And now, time for a little shameless self-congratulation

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 - by New Deal democrat The Intelligent Economist  has come out with its list of the Top 100 Economics Blogs for 2018: The 2018 li...

April housing tantalizingly ambiguous; industrial production whipsawed but positive

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  - by New Deal democrat This morning April housing permits and starts, as well as industrial production, were released. The housing d...
Tuesday, May 15, 2018

R.I.P. bond bull market, 1981-2016

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 - by New Deal democrat On September 30, 1981, the 10 year US Treasury bond yielded 15.84%. It has not been that high since.  On July 8,...

On the Cusp

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 - by New Deal democrat About half of all of the long leading indicators are, if their current trajectories continue, on the cusp of tur...
Monday, May 14, 2018

Real wage growth adjusted for gas prices

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  - by New Deal democrat One of the things I note from time to time in my discussions of wage growth is how much its fluctuation in real...
Saturday, May 12, 2018

Weekly Indicators for May 7 - 11 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The general situation with regard to interest rates continues to de...
Friday, May 11, 2018

Real wages and unemployment update: April 2018

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  - by New Deal democrat Now that we have the inflation numbers for April, let's update the wage situation for ordinary Americans. ...
Thursday, May 10, 2018

Gimme credit: two long leading indicators trend in opposing directions

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 - by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q1 was reported on Tuesday. Meanwhile, this morning's April CPI allows u...
Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Two real economic consequences of the Trump presidency

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 - by New Deal democrat Next week we will be 1/3 of the way through Trump's Presidential term. Last year I used to point out that i...
Tuesday, May 8, 2018

March JOLTS report: powerful further evidence of a taboo against rasing wages

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 - by New Deal democrat The March JOLTS report this morning is powerful further evidence that raising wages (or training new workers) h...
Monday, May 7, 2018

The simple jobs and interest rates model generates a yellow flag

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 - by New Deal democrat Several months ago, I started toying with a simple model of interest rates and job growth.*  Based on the histor...