Saturday, May 12, 2018

Weekly Indicators for May 7 - 11 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The general situation with regard to interest rates continues to de...
Friday, May 11, 2018

Real wages and unemployment update: April 2018

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  - by New Deal democrat Now that we have the inflation numbers for April, let's update the wage situation for ordinary Americans. ...
Thursday, May 10, 2018

Gimme credit: two long leading indicators trend in opposing directions

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 - by New Deal democrat The Senior Loan Officer Survey for Q1 was reported on Tuesday. Meanwhile, this morning's April CPI allows u...
Wednesday, May 9, 2018

Two real economic consequences of the Trump presidency

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 - by New Deal democrat Next week we will be 1/3 of the way through Trump's Presidential term. Last year I used to point out that i...
Tuesday, May 8, 2018

March JOLTS report: powerful further evidence of a taboo against rasing wages

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 - by New Deal democrat The March JOLTS report this morning is powerful further evidence that raising wages (or training new workers) h...
Monday, May 7, 2018

The simple jobs and interest rates model generates a yellow flag

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 - by New Deal democrat Several months ago, I started toying with a simple model of interest rates and job growth.*  Based on the histor...
Saturday, May 5, 2018

Weekly Indicators for April 30 - May 4 at XE.com

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- by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Oil prices have risen to the point where, when they filter through ...
Friday, May 4, 2018

April jobs report: excellent in almost all respects

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +164,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate fell -0.2% from 4.1% to 3.9% U6 underemployment rate fel...
Thursday, May 3, 2018

Gimme shelter Q1 2018 update: rents and house prices all at or near new extremes

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 - by New Deal democrat This post is a comprehensive update as to the cost of new and existing homes vs. renting, all measured compare...
Wednesday, May 2, 2018

Residential construction, ISM new orders, vehicle sales show decelerating growth

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday and today we got a bunch of leading economic data for both March and April. Last month the short term ...
Tuesday, May 1, 2018

A change of seasons in the financial markets? May Day update

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 - by New Deal democrat An era of generally rising bond yields is more likely than not starting, changing the way that the stock and bond...
Monday, April 30, 2018

March 2018 personal income and spending

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 - by New Deal democrat Programming note: I've been working on a mega-post about housing, that is now complete except for a few graph...
Saturday, April 28, 2018

Weekly Indicators for April 23 - 27 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . A number of indicators which had been positive have either now tur...
Friday, April 27, 2018

Q1 2018 GDP downshifts slightly; long leading indicators mixed

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  - by New Deal democrat This morning's preliminary reading of Q1 2018 GDP at +2.3%, down from the previous quarter's +2.9%, was...