Saturday, April 21, 2018

Weekly Indicators for April 16 - 20 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The regional Fed indexes, which presaged real strength in the indu...
Friday, April 20, 2018

Do interest rates still matter for the housing market?

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 - by New Deal democrat In the past few years, the strength of the housing market has seemed to defy the impact of interest rates. Do t...
Thursday, April 19, 2018

Higher wage growth for job switchers: more eviden of a taboo against raising wages?

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday the Atlanta Fed published a note touting the wage growth for those who quit their jobs and transfer t...
Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Is the US economy booming? April 2018 update

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  - by New Deal democrat Back in January, I asked if the economy was "booming." There's no official definition, but based o...
Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Notes on housing permits and industrial production for March 2018

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 - by New Deal democrat First, a quick note on housing permits and starts: obviously the overall numbers were very good. The overall up...
Monday, April 16, 2018

Real retail sales very positive. What to watch for next

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning's retail sales report for March was certainly very positive. Nevertheless, there is one as...
Sunday, April 15, 2018

A thought for Sunday: The Abyss always looks back, Presidential polling edition

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 - by New Deal democrat A point I have made about economic forecasting a number of times is that one can be an excellent forecaster, so...
Saturday, April 14, 2018

Weekly Indicators for April 9 - 13 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The long leading indicators keep tiptoeing closer and closer to ne...
Friday, April 13, 2018

February 2018 JOLTS report: positive trend revised away

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Last month I wrote that the January JOLTS report reflected very positive trends. Today they got revised away. As a refresher, unlike the...
Thursday, April 12, 2018

Real average hourly and aggregate earnings: March 2018 update

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 - by New Deal democrat Here's a look at two more labor market measures, now that we have the inflation data for March as well. ...
Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Further decelerataion in several long leading indicators

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 - by New Deal democrat Since the beginning of this year, I have noted the deceleration in real M1 and in purchase mortgage applications...
Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Is raising wages becoming a taboo?

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday I noted that, while the problem of lower labor market participation among the working age population ...
Monday, April 9, 2018

Scenes from the March employment report: no change in ongoing trends

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 - by New Deal democrat While it certainly has shortcomings, there is simply no other report that captures in timely fashion the factors...
Saturday, April 7, 2018

Weekly Indicators for April 2 - 6 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Last week interest rates declined but spreads tightened. This wee...
Friday, April 6, 2018

March jobs report: surprisingly weak

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +103,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% U6 underemployment rate fell -0.2% fr...
Thursday, April 5, 2018

April reports of short leading indicators start out good

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 - by New Deal democrat April reports started out this week with three positive readings of short leading indicators. First, the...
Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Why I'm expecting a good employment report on Friday

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 - by New Deal democrat ADP reported private payroll growth of 241,000 this morning, which prompted me to recall that two other shor...