Saturday, March 24, 2018

Weekly Indicators for March 19 - 23 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The long leading forecast continues to hover just above neutral, ...
Friday, March 23, 2018

February new and existing home sales: signs of stress?

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 - by New Deal democrat There's a real disconnect between the market for new and existing homes.  To cut to the chase, while sa...
Thursday, March 22, 2018

A rare event has happened in the bond markets

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 - by New Deal democrat There has been an inversion in the *direction* in which yields in long vs. short term bonds are moving. I exam...
Tuesday, March 20, 2018

Prime age labor force participation: disability and homemaking decline

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  - by New Deal democrat About a year ago I wrote a series of posts on various reasons for the relatively low labor force participat...
Monday, March 19, 2018

JOLTS revisions paint brighter labor market picture

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 -  by New Deal democrat Last Friday's JOLTS report for January included some important revisions, particularly with regard to hiri...
Sunday, March 18, 2018

A thought for Sunday: in which I pour some cold water on 2018 midterm overoptimism

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 - by New Deal democrat In the wake of Conor Lamb's election victory in Pennsylvania last Tuesday night, some Democratic partisans a...
Saturday, March 17, 2018

Weekly Indicators for March 12 - 16 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . This week most of the data that has been decelerating turned in a...
Friday, March 16, 2018

Liveblogging housing, industrial production, and JOLTS

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 - by New Deal democrat This is one of those days when it seems every piece of economic data in the whole world is getting reported simu...
Thursday, March 15, 2018

February update: real wages and real spending

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 - by New Deal democrat Now that we have February inflation, let's take an updated look at real wages and real spending. First o...
Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Real M1 and M2 growth the lowest since 2010

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 - by New Deal democrat In view of yesterday's inflation report, I take a look at the recent big deceleration in both real M1 and M2...
Monday, March 12, 2018

Labor force participation, unemployment, and wages: an update

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 -  by New Deal democrat About a year ago I wrote a series of posts on the relationship between the unemployment rate, labor force parti...
Sunday, March 11, 2018

The Grand Illusion 2.0

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 - by New Deal democrat Introductory note: this is a very long epistle. But I think my point needs to be made fully and at length. Befor...
Saturday, March 10, 2018

Weekly Indicators for March 5 - 9 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . As anticipated, the rough patch in the coincident indicators has ...
Friday, March 9, 2018

February jobs report: a blowout! Except (sigh) for wages

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +313,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% U6 underemployment rate unchanged at 8...
Thursday, March 8, 2018

One third of the way to the 2020 Presidential election

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 - by New Deal democrat Today marks 16 months since the 2016 election, and 32 months before the one in 2020.   We are one third of the way t...
Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Interest rates and jobs: a variation on the model

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 - by New Deal democrat Friday is nonfarm payrolls day, so in the absence of more noteworthy economic news, let me follow up on Monday...