Saturday, March 17, 2018

Weekly Indicators for March 12 - 16 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . This week most of the data that has been decelerating turned in a...
Friday, March 16, 2018

Liveblogging housing, industrial production, and JOLTS

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 - by New Deal democrat This is one of those days when it seems every piece of economic data in the whole world is getting reported simu...
Thursday, March 15, 2018

February update: real wages and real spending

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 - by New Deal democrat Now that we have February inflation, let's take an updated look at real wages and real spending. First o...
Wednesday, March 14, 2018

Real M1 and M2 growth the lowest since 2010

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 - by New Deal democrat In view of yesterday's inflation report, I take a look at the recent big deceleration in both real M1 and M2...
Monday, March 12, 2018

Labor force participation, unemployment, and wages: an update

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 -  by New Deal democrat About a year ago I wrote a series of posts on the relationship between the unemployment rate, labor force parti...
Sunday, March 11, 2018

The Grand Illusion 2.0

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 - by New Deal democrat Introductory note: this is a very long epistle. But I think my point needs to be made fully and at length. Befor...
Saturday, March 10, 2018

Weekly Indicators for March 5 - 9 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . As anticipated, the rough patch in the coincident indicators has ...
Friday, March 9, 2018

February jobs report: a blowout! Except (sigh) for wages

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +313,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% U6 underemployment rate unchanged at 8...
Thursday, March 8, 2018

One third of the way to the 2020 Presidential election

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 - by New Deal democrat Today marks 16 months since the 2016 election, and 32 months before the one in 2020.   We are one third of the way t...
Wednesday, March 7, 2018

Interest rates and jobs: a variation on the model

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 - by New Deal democrat Friday is nonfarm payrolls day, so in the absence of more noteworthy economic news, let me follow up on Monday...
Tuesday, March 6, 2018

The significance of the 1948 recession

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  - by New Deal democrat The yield curve never inverted between the early 1930s and the mid 1950s. And yet there were four recessions dur...
Monday, March 5, 2018

A simple model of interest rates and the jobs market

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 - by New Deal democrat Since we are still in an era of very low interest rates, and during the past such era of 1930-1955 several r...
Sunday, March 4, 2018

A thought for Sunday: the march of demographics and the 2018 midterms

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 - by New Deal democrat Below is a  graph showing that the older the demographic (up until age 80), the bigger the turnout during midte...
Saturday, March 3, 2018

Weekly Indicators for February 26 - March 2 at XE.com

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  - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Real M2 has already turned into a negative. Now M1 is also decler...
Friday, March 2, 2018

Is the secular economic season beginning to change (Part 2)

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 - by New Deal democrat The selloff of a month ago may well be the harbinger of a fundamental change in the relationship between bond yi...