Saturday, February 24, 2018

Weekly Indicators for February 19 - 23 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . One of the advantages of tracking data that is updated every week...
Friday, February 23, 2018

China, not automation, is by far the biggest factor in the decline of prime age labor force participation

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  - by New Deal democrat Perhaps the biggest mystery in economic analysis in the last few years has been trying to find an explanati...
Thursday, February 22, 2018

Initial jobless claims: the single most positive aspect of the entire economy

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  - by New Deal democrat I haven't been bothering to comment on initial jobless claims reports lately, for the simple fact that ...
Wednesday, February 21, 2018

Conflicting reports on the "rental affordability crisis"

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 - by New Deal democrat Almost four years ago HUD warned of  "the worst rental affordability crisis ever,"  citing statistics...
Tuesday, February 20, 2018

No, Matt Yglesias, Trump is *not* "probably gonna be re-elected"

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 - by New Deal democrat While I generally agree with the political and social observations of Matt Yglesias and Ezra Klein, their takes...

How big a rise in interest rates would it take to create a recession?

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 - by New Deal democrat Based on past experience, how much of a spike in interest rates would it take for the economy to reverse? I lay...
Monday, February 19, 2018

Four biographies for President's Day

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 - by New Deal democrat In the past several years, I have read four biographies of overlooked or more controversial Presidents. On this...
Saturday, February 17, 2018

Weekly Indicators for February 12 - 16 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Weakness is several coincident indicators has persisted, and this...
Friday, February 16, 2018

Housing permits and industrial production: a brief note

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 - by New Deal democrat I'll take a more detailed look next week once new home sales are reported, but for now a quick update on hou...

Bonddad blog's 10,000th post!

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 - by New Deal democrat According to Blogger, that last post about real retail sales was the 10,000th post on the Bonddad blog. Thanks ...

A detailed update on real retail sales

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 - by New Deal democrat I consider real retail sales to be one of the most useful barometers of the health of the consumer economy, inclu...
Thursday, February 15, 2018

Why I'm worried about the decline in real wages

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 - by New Deal democrat This is a follow-up to my post yesterday concerning the decline in real average and aggregate wages. Why should ...
Wednesday, February 14, 2018

This is bad: real wages *declined* in January; may be rolling over

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 - by New Deal democrat Consumer prices rose +0.5% in January. That in itself isn't bad news, as they rose an equal +0.5% one year ...
Tuesday, February 13, 2018

Memo to younger readers: in an era of rising interest rates, deficits DO matter very much

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 - by New Deal democrat If you are under about 45 years of age, the odds are that you agree with one statement made by Dick Cheney: tha...
Monday, February 12, 2018

Interest rates: no shift in the economic weather yet

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   - by New Deal democrat I wanted to make two comments about what has been happening recently with interest rates, a short term look ...
Saturday, February 10, 2018

Weekly Indicators for February 5 - 9 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Even with their 10% correction, stock prices melted up so much in ...
Friday, February 9, 2018

Fraying at the edges? *relative* underemployment increases

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 - by New Deal democrat This is a post I've been meaning to put up all week (after all, this week was going to be very slow on d...

Once more into a the market abyss

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 - by New Deal democrat So the stock market is down 10% as of this writing, which takes us all the way back to --- three months ago!...