Saturday, February 10, 2018

Weekly Indicators for February 5 - 9 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Even with their 10% correction, stock prices melted up so much in ...
Friday, February 9, 2018

Fraying at the edges? *relative* underemployment increases

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 - by New Deal democrat This is a post I've been meaning to put up all week (after all, this week was going to be very slow on d...

Once more into a the market abyss

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 - by New Deal democrat So the stock market is down 10% as of this writing, which takes us all the way back to --- three months ago!...
Thursday, February 8, 2018

Credit got looser in Q4 2017

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 - by New Deal democrat There are times the economy is boring.  Ok, ok, especially boring. To the point where I don't have much to ...

Jobless claims make another record low

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  - by New Deal democrat One reason not to get excited about the last week's stock market swoon is that it isn't being confi...
Wednesday, February 7, 2018

December JOLTS report continues good news

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 -  by New Deal democrat For the last several years, I kept banging away at the fact that "job openings" are soft data that c...

Errr, ahem . . .

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 - by New Deal democrat Me, yesterday at 9 a.m. eastern time: So my best guess is that we will see a climax in panic -- maybe at 9:35 ...
Tuesday, February 6, 2018

A comment about the markets for the average reader

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 - by New Deal democrat This is a post aimed at the generally Progressive audience of this blog who followed us over from way back i...
Monday, February 5, 2018

Why I'm not impressed by January's 2.9% YoY wage growth

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  - by New Deal democrat I wanted to follow up on why I dissented Friday from the near-consensus take that workers finally got a nice ra...

Fly, Iggles, fly!

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 - by New Deal democrat Congratulations to the Philadelphia Eagles on their first ever Super Bowl victory! Yes, Philly sports fans have...
Saturday, February 3, 2018

Weekly Indicators for January 29 - February 2 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Not surprisingly, stocks and bonds took center stage this week.
Friday, February 2, 2018

January jobs report: good headline growth, mostly negative internals. UPDATE: THE BOSSES GAVE THEMSELVES A RAISE

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +200,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% U6 underemployment rate rose 0.1% from...
Thursday, February 1, 2018

About that Trump wage boom

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 - by New Deal democrat Over last weekend, I read a bunch of notes which indicated that Trump was claiming credit for a boom in wage growth...
Wednesday, January 31, 2018

What's behind the big Q4 decline in real median weekly wages?

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 - by New Deal democrat [Note: This is a post I was working on last week. I hypothesized that the employment cost index would validate th...
Tuesday, January 30, 2018

My forecast for the second half of 2018 is ...

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- by New Deal democrat ...  over at XE.com . 'nuff said?
Monday, January 29, 2018

Is the economy partying like it's 1999?

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 - by New Deal democrat Suddenly I have a lot to say about the economy. My sense is that we are on to a new phase after the 2015 shallow...
Saturday, January 27, 2018

Weekly Indicators for January 22 - 26 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com .  Aside from more mixed long leading indicators, there has been this ...
Friday, January 26, 2018

Leading components of Q4 GDP forecast continued growth in 2018

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning's release of Q4 2017 GDP was in line with estimates, rising 2.7% on a preliminary basis.  As us...
Thursday, January 25, 2018

Housing: sales and prices accelerate in Q4 2017

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  - by New Deal democrat With the exception of rental vacancies and pricing, which should be released next Tuesday, with the morning'...
Wednesday, January 24, 2018

A note on December existing home sales

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 - by New Deal democrat First of all, sorry for the light posting this week.  There's not much news until tomorrow and Friday, a...