Saturday, February 3, 2018

Weekly Indicators for January 29 - February 2 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Not surprisingly, stocks and bonds took center stage this week.
Friday, February 2, 2018

January jobs report: good headline growth, mostly negative internals. UPDATE: THE BOSSES GAVE THEMSELVES A RAISE

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +200,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% U6 underemployment rate rose 0.1% from...
Thursday, February 1, 2018

About that Trump wage boom

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 - by New Deal democrat Over last weekend, I read a bunch of notes which indicated that Trump was claiming credit for a boom in wage growth...
Wednesday, January 31, 2018

What's behind the big Q4 decline in real median weekly wages?

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 - by New Deal democrat [Note: This is a post I was working on last week. I hypothesized that the employment cost index would validate th...
Tuesday, January 30, 2018

My forecast for the second half of 2018 is ...

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- by New Deal democrat ...  over at XE.com . 'nuff said?
Monday, January 29, 2018

Is the economy partying like it's 1999?

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 - by New Deal democrat Suddenly I have a lot to say about the economy. My sense is that we are on to a new phase after the 2015 shallow...
Saturday, January 27, 2018

Weekly Indicators for January 22 - 26 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com .  Aside from more mixed long leading indicators, there has been this ...
Friday, January 26, 2018

Leading components of Q4 GDP forecast continued growth in 2018

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 - by New Deal democrat This morning's release of Q4 2017 GDP was in line with estimates, rising 2.7% on a preliminary basis.  As us...
Thursday, January 25, 2018

Housing: sales and prices accelerate in Q4 2017

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  - by New Deal democrat With the exception of rental vacancies and pricing, which should be released next Tuesday, with the morning'...
Wednesday, January 24, 2018

A note on December existing home sales

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 - by New Deal democrat First of all, sorry for the light posting this week.  There's not much news until tomorrow and Friday, a...
Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Recent increased interest rates probably won't derail housing

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 - by New Deal democrat In the last couple of weeks, long term interest rates have moved significantly higher.  As of yesterday, the ...
Sunday, January 21, 2018

My Weekly Posts are Up at XE.com

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US economic week in review US Bond market week in review International week in review
Saturday, January 20, 2018

Weekly Indicators for January 15 - 19 at XE.com.

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The new 40 year low in jobless claims was overshadowed by ...
Friday, January 19, 2018

The intensity of Fed rate hikes as a precursor to recessions

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  - by New Deal democrat Between 1931 and the mid-1950s, the yield curve never inverted, and yet there were 5 recessions (1938, 1945...
Thursday, January 18, 2018

A quick note on housing permits and starts

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 - by New Deal democrat I'll do a more detailed analysis next week, once new home sales are reported, but for now a quick synopsis a...
Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Industrial production and retail sales both had strong 4th Quarters

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 - by New Deal democrat Whether due to a bounce from hurricane interruptions, or some other reasons, both real retail sales and industria...
Monday, January 15, 2018

Minority unemployment: progress vs. prejudice

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 - by New Deal democrat On this Martin Luther King Day, let's take a look at minority unemployment. This got a little attention ear...
Sunday, January 14, 2018

My Weekly Posts Are Up at XE.com

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US economic week in review Bond Market Week in Review International Economic week in review
Saturday, January 13, 2018

Weekly Indicators for January 8 - 12 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . This week a lot of the data was affected by holiday seasonality, b...
Friday, January 12, 2018

Real wages in 2017

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  - by New Deal democrat Now that we have the report on consumer prices for December, let's take a look at what happened with re...