Friday, January 5, 2018

December jobs report: late cycle mediocre growth reasserts itself

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : +143,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% U6 underemployment rate rose  +0.1% fr...
Thursday, January 4, 2018

My forecast for H1 2018

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  - by New Deal democrat The first part of my two-part forecast for 2018 is  up at XE.com .
Wednesday, January 3, 2018

What's Up With the Asset Backed and Commercial Paper Market?

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Above are three charts for the short-term asset backed market.  Over the last month, we've seen increased spr...

Commodities and Inflation

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Above is a group of charts that track the major commodity ETFs.  There are two groups of prices that could cause inflation to move highe...
Tuesday, January 2, 2018

The Oil Chart is Setting Up Very Bullishly To Start the Year

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Oil is looking very bullish right now. On the daily chart (top chart), prices are in a multi-month uptrend.  They recently con...
Sunday, December 31, 2017

My Last Posts of the Year Are Up at XE

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International Week in Review Bond Market Week in Review
Saturday, December 30, 2017

Weekly Indicators for year end 2017 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com .  The year 2017 is ending in a very positive fashion. The Doomers ...
Friday, December 29, 2017

2018 Looks Like a Solid Economic Year

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This is over at xe.com
Thursday, December 28, 2017

In which I mark my forecast for 2017 to market

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 - by New Deal democrat At the beginning of each year, I fearlessly forecast the economy over the ensuing 12 months. So, how did I do ...
Wednesday, December 27, 2017

John Hinderaker and Steven Hayward Are Actually Becoming More Economically Incompetent With Age

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First of all, let's all remember that Powerline has the worst record when it comes to discussing economics.  As I pointed out several ye...
Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Five graphs for 2017:final update

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 - by New Deal democrat At the beginning of the year, I identified 5 trends that bore particular watching, primarily as potentially setti...
Sunday, December 24, 2017

My Columns Are Up at XE.com

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Bond market year in review The US economy ends the year on a high note
Saturday, December 23, 2017

Weekly Indicators for December 18 - 22 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . There is what passes for turmoil in my dry and nerdy world among ...
Friday, December 22, 2017

Personal spending and new home sales: restrain your enthusiasm!

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 - by New Deal democrat We got the last two significant data points of the year this morning: personal spending and new home sales...

The bond yield conundrum: 100 years of spreads

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  - by New Deal democrat As I mentioned the other day, we have data going back nearly 100 years on the relationships between short a...
Thursday, December 21, 2017

Why Would Anybody Invest When Capacity Utilization is This Low?

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A central selling point of the tax bill is that it will encourage investment.  But that assumes that high tax rates were the primary reason ...
Wednesday, December 20, 2017

How interest rates and the demographic tailwind ended the housing slowdown of 2017

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 - by New Deal democrat Yesterday's report on housing permits and starts confirms that the housing slowdown of 2017 is over. Based ...

Five Key Graphs for 2018

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This is up over at XE.com
Tuesday, December 19, 2017

The bond yield conundrum revisited: narrowing corporate spreads vs. a flattening Treasury yield curve

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 - by New Deal democrat Two introductory notes: first of all, next week is the last week of the year including the Christmas holiday...
Monday, December 18, 2017

Monday Morning Bond Market Round-Up

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The Baa-10-year treasury spread (top chart) is at a 10-year low.  This is a leading indicator.  The AAA-10-year spread (bottom ...