Saturday, October 7, 2017

Weekly Indicators for October 2 - 6 at XE.com.

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- by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The slew of positive trends continues.
Friday, October 6, 2017

September jobs report: establishment survey stinks, but household survey rocks!

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- by New Deal democrat HEADLINES : -33,000 jobs lost U3 unemployment rate down -0.2% from 4.4% to 4.2% (new low) U6 underemployment...
Thursday, October 5, 2017

Hurricane adjusted initial jobless claims for the week of September 23: 246,000

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 - by New Deal democrat I am repeating an exercise I undertook in 2012 when Superstorm Sandy disrupted the initial claims data: estimati...
Wednesday, October 4, 2017

ISM manufacturing and vehicle sales: surprising signs of short term strength

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 - by New Deal democrat Just a quick note about two data releases this week, one of which was (apparently) whipsawed by the hurrica...
Tuesday, October 3, 2017

Construction spending and the housing slowdown

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 - by New Deal democrat Is residential construction spending confirming the slowdown apparent in housing permits and new home sales? T...
Sunday, October 1, 2017

A thought for Sunday: of basic decency and humanity, and how the economy is shoring up the GOP

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 - by New Deal democrat A few threads of the Trump malAdministration came rogether this past week. The latest attempt to overturn O...
Saturday, September 30, 2017

Weekly Indicators for September 25 - 29 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . Despite the disruptions of three major hurricanes, the underlying...
Friday, September 29, 2017

Ex-hurricane trend in September industrial production is positive

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 - by New Deal democrat As I outlined earlier this week, a reasonable temporary workaround for industrial production unaffected by the r...
Thursday, September 28, 2017

Hurricane-adjusted initial claims for the week of September 16: 237,000

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 - by New Deal democrat I am repeating an exercise I undertook in 2012 when Superstorm Sandy disrupted the initial claims data: estimati...

Wow! Yellin confirms 2% inflation is the Fed's ceiling

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 - by New Deal democrat You may have already seen this elsewhere, but in case you didn't, Janet Yellin all but officially confirmed t...
Wednesday, September 27, 2017

Home sales decline -- even leaving out the hurricane-affected South

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 - by New Deal democrat As promised yesterday, I put together the graphs and charts to show you that, even when we take out Florida and ...
Tuesday, September 26, 2017

Despite the hurricanes, the slowdown in the housing market is real

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 - by New Deal democrat I'll have a detailed post up tomorrow, but the takeaway from this morning's report on new home sales is t...
Monday, September 25, 2017

A hurricane workaround for industrial production

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 -  by New Deal democrat Last week I mentioned that the regional Fed surveys plus the Chicago PMI can be used as a workaround to account...
Sunday, September 24, 2017

A thought for Sunday: the most important issue in the 2016 election was . . .

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 - by New Deal democrat This is a post I've been meaning to write for several months. For a while after the election last year, ther...
Saturday, September 23, 2017

Weekly Indicators for September 18 - 22 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The biggest news was in purchase mortgage applications, hurricane ...
Friday, September 22, 2017

On August housing permits and starts, curb your enthusiasm

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 - by New Deal democrat Hurricanes Harvey and Irma together affected over 10% of the housing market at minimum. That's one of three g...
Thursday, September 21, 2017

Hurricane adjusted initial jobless claims for the week of September 9: 229,000

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 - by New Deal democrat I am repeating an exercise I undertook in 2012 when Superstorm Sandy disrupted the initial claims data: estimati...
Wednesday, September 20, 2017

The asterisk in real median household income

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 - by New Deal democrat This is a follow-up to the post I wrote last week about the latest data on real median household income. One...
Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Hurricane workarounds for industrial production and housing

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 - by New Deal democrat Hurricane Harvey has already affected some of the August data releases.  Irma has already started to affect some...
Saturday, September 16, 2017

Weekly Indicators for September 11 - 15 at XE.com

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 - by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is  up at XE.com . The effects of Hurricane Harvey have shown up in a number of data ...